Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 25d ago·2 min read
Cleveland GuardiansCLE(54-53)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(49-55)
0—0
FINAL
123456789R
CLE
—————————0
CIN
—————————0

Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA) gets the ball for the Guardians, working opposite Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA) for the Reds, with first pitch set for 8:00 PM ET at Great American Ball Park.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Guardians(54-53)
LLLLL
0
Reds(49-55)
WLWWW
0
Best BetGuardians +144
Postgame

Cleveland never found the win column here, so the away-side moneyline swing missed.

Pregame

Cleveland's price reflects a team that's lost 5 in a row, but the number still implies this is closer to a coin flip than the skid suggests. Cecconi has swing-and-miss stuff even when he's leaking runs, and road dogs against a rookie starter always carry some risk of overcorrection in the market. We're sticking with the Guardians here as the value side.

Cecconi's last time out against the Twins was a mixed bag — 5 strikeouts but 3 walks and 7 hits allowed over just 4.2 innings in a loss. Burns, meanwhile, has been the best story in Cincinnati's rotation all year, and he backed it up his last time out with 5 shutout innings against Seattle, striking out 6 without giving up an earned run.

Cleveland Guardians
Slade Cecconi
(4-7)·5.07 ERA
Jul 22 vs Twins
L
4.2IP
3ER
5K
3BB
88P
07/27 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
(13-2)·2.61 ERA
Jul 21 @ Mariners
W
5.0IP
0ER
6K
2BB
91P
07/27 Lineup

Neither lineup is at full strength. Cleveland just got reliever Shawn Armstrong back from the IL, which helps a taxed bullpen, while Cincinnati is trying to piece things together with McLain, Steer and Dunn all sidelined and a rotation already missing Lodolo, Williamson and Ashcraft.

The bigger story is direction. Cleveland has dropped 5 straight, getting outscored badly in the process and looking lifeless at the plate against Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Cincinnati, by contrast, has won 4 of its last 5, including a series win over St. Louis, and Burns has quietly turned into the closest thing this rotation has to a true No. 1 since Hunter Greene went down.

Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(54-53)
Jul 26L@ Rays0-1
Jul 25L@ Rays0-3
Jul 24L@ Rays3-11
Jul 23Lvs Twins1-3
Jul 22Lvs Twins6-10
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(49-55)
Jul 26W@ Cardinals5-3
Jul 25L@ Cardinals0-7
Jul 25W@ Cardinals4-2
Jul 22W@ Mariners5-3
Jul 22W@ Mariners4-2

That form gap is the whole ballgame here. A Guardians offense that's gone cold for a week now has to solve a rookie who's given up 0 earned runs in his last outing, while Cecconi needs to find swing-and-miss consistency he hasn't had for stretches this season. Cincinnati's injury list is longer, but most of it is bullpen and bench depth rather than guys who'd be hitting in the middle of the order every night.

Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(1)
  • 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong (RP) — The Guardians reinstated Armstrong (groin) from the 15-day injured list Monday.07/25
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(7)
  • 10-Day-ILMatt McLain (2B) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Monday that McLain (calf) will stay with Triple-A Louisville on a rehab assignment to begin the week, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/27
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Steer (1B) — Steer will wear a splint for the next two weeks after being diagnosed with a partial tear of the tendon sheath in his right wrist, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/27
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) suffered a setback prior to being sent on a rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.07/25
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Santillan (oblique) threw out to 75 feet Friday and experienced no discomfort, MLB.com reports.07/25
  • 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo (SP) — Lodolo (blister) will attempt to throw a bullpen Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters Wednesday, MLB.com reports.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/18

Burns has quickly become one of the better stories in the league this year, a rookie who's earned an All-Star nod and a long-term extension while carrying a rotation that's dealt with injury after injury. Cleveland's task is simple on paper and hard in practice: stop the bleeding against the pitcher least likely to let them do it easily.

Sources

MLBCleveland GuardiansCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiSlade CecconiChase Burns