Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays

By Bush StaffUpdated 26d ago·2 min read
Cleveland GuardiansCLE(54-52)
Tampa Bay RaysTB(61-43)
0—1
FINAL
123456789RHE
CLE
000000000010
TB
00001000—160

Drew Rasmussen (8-5, 3.19 ERA) took the ball for the Rays against Cleveland's rookie sensation Parker Messick (8-5, 2.63 ERA) in a Sunday getaway-day matinee at Tropicana Field, and it lived up to the arms on paper — a taut, run-starved grind that came down to which lineup could scratch out anything at all.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Guardians(54-52)
LLLLW
0
Rays(61-43)
WWLWW
1
Best BetRays -118
Postgame

Cashed — Rasmussen and the Rays' pitching turned one run into a 1-0 win, exactly the low-scoring script that favored the home side.

Pregame

We backed the Rays at -118 and it held up exactly as drawn — Rasmussen and a deep bullpen just needed one run behind them. Cleveland's offense has been the worst everyday-lineup problem in baseball for weeks, and betting against it in a low-scoring spot was the play at almost any price.

It wasn't much of a contest for the bats. Cleveland has been dragging a corpse of an offense into every series since the calendar flipped to July, and Tampa Bay's pitching staff — fronted by a Rasmussen who's been in the thick of the AL Cy Young conversation all year — made sure this game followed the same script as the rest of the week. One run was all anybody needed.

Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick
(9-6)·2.57 ERA
Jul 21 vs Twins
ND
5.2IP
1ER
6K
0BB
88P
07/26 Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen
(11-5)·2.75 ERA
Jul 21 @ Blue Jays
W
5.0IP
2ER
5K
1BB
93P
07/26 Lineup

The Rays didn't need fireworks to get this one across the finish line, just enough contact at the right time and a bullpen that's been shutting doors all season behind closer Bryan Baker. Cleveland, missing three of its top bats to injury, simply had no answer.

This is the same story that's been playing out in Cleveland for weeks. Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez are all out, and the results have been brutal — the Guardians have hit an AL-worst .197 with runners in scoring position since June. Sunday's one-hit output against Rasmussen is just the latest data point in a lineup that's been getting no-hit into midgame far too often this summer.

Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(54-52)
Jul 25L@ Rays0-3
Jul 24L@ Rays3-11
Jul 23Lvs Twins1-3
Jul 22Lvs Twins6-10
Jul 21Wvs Twins5-2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(61-43)
Jul 25Wvs Guardians3-0
Jul 24Wvs Guardians11-3
Jul 23L@ Blue Jays1-3
Jul 22W@ Blue Jays4-2
Jul 21W@ Blue Jays12-2

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, keeps rolling. The Rays became the first American League club to reach 60 wins this season, and taking three straight from a fading Cleveland squad while getting length from Rasmussen is exactly the kind of series a first-place team is supposed to win. Taylor Walls sat out with a finger issue, but a team this deep barely blinked.

Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(1)
  • 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong (RP) — The Guardians reinstated Armstrong (groin) from the 15-day injured list Monday.07/25
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(8)
  • Day-To-DayTaylor Walls (SS) — Walls (fingers) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians.07/26
  • 10-Day-ILJake Fraley (RF) — Fraley (groin) was pulled off his rehab assignment Sunday at Triple-A Durham after feeling something in the area of his hernia surgery, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.07/12
  • 60-Day-ILManuel Rodriguez (RP) — Rodriguez (elbow) began a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Thursday, giving up a solo home run and striking out three in one inning.07/24
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Lux (LF) — Lux (shoulder) was pulled off his rehab assignment earlier this week, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILSteven Wilson (RP) — Wilson (back) has been sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League to begin a rehab assignment.07/10
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Uceta (RP) — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Uceta has yet to resume throwing and will meet with a doctor to have his nagging right shoulder injury examined, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan Heasley (RP) — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Pepiot (SP) — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08

For Cleveland, the concerning part isn't one bad week — it's that the pitching staff keeps giving them a chance to win these games and the lineup keeps no-showing. Messick was plenty good enough to keep this thing at 1-0 into the late innings, and it still wasn't enough. Until Ramirez and company are back in that order, expect more of the same.

Sources

MLBCleveland GuardiansTampa Bay RaysPolymarketKalshiParker MessickDrew Rasmussen