Barstool Bush
Predictions

Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 66d ago·2 min read
Cleveland GuardiansCLE(39-34)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(44-26)
4—9
FINAL
123456789RHE
CLE
000400000430
MIL
32020002—9110

First pitch is 6:40 PM CT at American Family Field and the pitching matchup is wildly lopsided on paper. Gavin Williams shows up at 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA and a season-long jump in command. Brandon Sproat counters at 1-4 with a 5.70 ERA, a rookie who was getting publicly called out by his own manager a couple weeks ago. On paper, this should be a Guardians spot.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Guardians(39-34)
LPWWL
4
Brewers(44-26)
WWLWL
9
Best BetGuardians +103
Pregame

Williams at 3.32 versus Sproat at 5.70 is the kind of pitching gap that usually shows up as a bigger price than +109. Milwaukee's lineup is fine but not scary against a top-of-the-rotation righty, and getting a plus number on the better arm is real value. Lean Cleveland.

The not-so-fun part for Cleveland: Jose Ramirez had surgery Tuesday to clean up the hook of the hamate in his left hand and is looking at 5-to-7 weeks out, which puts the All-Star past the break. Chase DeLauter (ribs) is also out of the lineup, and Angel Martinez is on the 10-day IL. So Williams is going to need to do a lot of the heavy lifting against a Brewers offense that already grinded out a 2-1 win in the opener.

Cleveland Guardians
Gavin Williams
(9-4)·3.81 ERA
Jun 8 vs Yankees
ND
5.0IP
3ER
5K
3BB
90P
06/17 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Sproat
(3-4)·5.28 ERA
Jun 10 @ Athletics
ND
6.0IP
1ER
3K
1BB
68P
06/17 Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(5)
  • Day-To-DayChase DeLauter (RF) — DeLauter (ribs) isn't in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Brewers.06/16
  • Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez (RP) — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJose Ramirez (3B) — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.06/16
  • 10-Day-ILAngel Martinez (LF) — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.06/16
  • 15-Day-ILErik Sabrowski (RP) — Sabrowski (elbow) joined High-A Lake County on Sunday to begin a rehab assignment, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.06/15
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right knee Thursday, MLB.com reports.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow said Sunday that an MRI on his right forearm revealed a mild flexor strain, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall received an anti-inflammatory injection for his left pectoral strain Friday, MLB.com reports.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff (shoulder) is expected to make another minor-league rehab start Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILJared Koenig (RP) — Koenig (elbow) transferred his rehab assignment to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and could be activated from the injured list in about a week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Henderson received an injection in his back Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/03
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester (shoulder) will have a follow-up visit Tuesday with thoracic surgeon Dr. Gregory Pearl, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

Sproat is the swing factor. His last time out he gave Milwaukee 6 innings of 1-run ball in Oakland, easily his best outing of the year. Before that it was 5 earned in 4.1 against Houston and a Pat Murphy soundbite that basically dared him to be better. The rotation is so banged up — Priester, Woodruff, Henderson, Crow all on the shelf — that the Brewers are stuck riding it out and hoping the Oakland version shows up again.

Williams, meanwhile, is quietly turning into the guy in this rotation. He's already racked up multiple 10-strikeout games this year and is finishing innings he used to nibble through. The last start (5 IP, 3 ER, no decision against the Yankees on June 8) wasn't his sharpest, but he's been the most reliable arm on this staff and now he gets a lineup that's been carried by Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio more than anything thunderous.

Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(39-34)
Jun 16L@ Brewers1-2
Jun 14Pvs Tigers0-0
Jun 13Wvs Tigers3-1
Jun 12Wvs Tigers3-2
Jun 10Lvs Yankees4-8
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(44-26)
Jun 16Wvs Guardians2-1
Jun 14Wvs Phillies4-0
Jun 13Lvs Phillies8-9
Jun 12Wvs Phillies6-0
Jun 11L@ Athletics3-4

Milwaukee is 44-26 and leading the NL Central. Cleveland is 39-34 and frankly held it together pretty well in the opener considering the J-Ram news landed the same day. If Williams can give them 6-plus and the bullpen avoids the late-inning slip that decided Tuesday, this is exactly the type of game the Guardians steal on the road.

Sources

MLBCleveland GuardiansMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiGavin WilliamsBrandon Sproat