Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

By Bush StaffUpdated 24d ago·2 min read
San Francisco GiantsSF(45-62)
San Diego PadresSD(54-53)
4—1
FINAL
123456789RHE
SF
1200100004110
SD
010000000160

San Diego's actual starter for this one is still TBD as of publish, and honestly, the Padres have made that a running theme all month. San Francisco's is TBD too, and given the state of their rotation, that's just as fitting.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Giants(45-62)
LWLWW
4
Padres(54-53)
WWWWL
1
Best BetPadres -174
Pregame

San Diego is the right side here on name value and, more importantly, form — they're riding a four-game win streak fueled by Tatis and Machado while San Francisco just got run off the field by Milwaukee. The Giants' offense minus Devers has been thin for weeks, and it's showing. Back the Padres to win outright.

The Padres have leaned on a patchwork pitching plan for weeks now, mixing Dylan Cease and Michael King with piggyback arms behind them, and it's actually held up. Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, Lucas Giolito and Yu Darvish are all out, some without a real return date, yet San Diego keeps grinding out wins. Thursday's opener won't change the philosophy: bullpen depth over name recognition.

San Francisco Giants
Robbie Ray
(10-7)·3.28 ERA
Jul 25 vs Angels
W
6.0IP
0ER
5K
2BB
80P
07/30 Lineup
San Diego Padres
JP Sears
(3-4)·4.68 ERA
Jul 20 @ Braves
L
5.0IP
1ER
3K
0BB
55P
07/30 Lineup

San Francisco's pitching picture is bleaker. Trevor McDonald is done for the year and heading for elbow reconstruction in early August, one more arm off a staff that already can't miss many more Vitello has to piece things together on the fly, and the results have been ugly — the Giants got outscored 8-2 by Milwaukee in their last outing after riding a shutout the game before.

San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
(45-62)
Jul 29Lvs Brewers2-8
Jul 28Wvs Brewers3-0
Jul 26Lvs Angels3-4
Jul 25Wvs Angels9-2
Jul 25Wvs Angels7-6
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(54-53)
Jul 29Wvs Rockies8-7
Jul 26W@ Marlins5-3
Jul 25W@ Marlins7-2
Jul 24W@ Marlins4-2
Jul 23L@ Braves5-6

San Diego just walked off Colorado 8-7 on Tuesday behind a Fernando Tatis Jr. five-hit night and a game-tying, then game-winning rally in the ninth. That's their fourth straight win, and it comes on the heels of Manny Machado going deep twice against Atlanta. Whatever's ailing the rotation, the lineup is compensating.

San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
(12)
  • 10-Day-ILHarrison Bader (CF) — Bader had a scooter accident this past weekend and further injured his left foot, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.07/28
  • 10-Day-ILCasey Schmitt (LF) — The Giants placed Schmitt on the 10-day injured list with a left knee meniscus tear.07/28
  • 10-Day-ILMatt Chapman (3B) — Manager Tony Vitello said Sunday that Chapman (abdomen) is still without a target date for his return from the 10-day injured list, which suggests that the veteran third baseman won't be activated before the Giants' homestand ends Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.07/27
  • 10-Day-ILVictor Bericoto (RF) — Giants manager Tony Vitello said Saturday that Bericoto (oblique) may be ready to return from the 10-day injured list "within a couple of weeks, could be sooner," MLB.com reports.07/27
  • 10-Day-ILJonah Cox (CF) — Cox (oblique) was able to do some baserunning Sunday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.07/27
  • 15-Day-ILTrevor McDonald (SP) — McDonald is scheduled to undergo UCL reconstruction surgery in early August, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.07/29
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Gage (RP) — Gage will be re-evaluated in one month after an MRI revealed a moderate left flexor strain, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILJoel Peguero (RP) — Peguero (hamstring) threw 30 pitches during a bullpen session Monday, Evan Webeck of the California Post reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILRowan Wick (RP) — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Birdsong (RP) — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILRandy Rodriguez (RP) — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJose Butto (RP) — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILMiguel Andujar (DH) — The Padres placed Andujar on the 10-day injured list Monday with a fractured right wrist.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILSamad Taylor (LF) — Taylor said Wednesday that he exited Tuesday's game against the Diamondbacks with a right side injury, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/08
  • 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito (elbow) has been throwing at San Diego's team complex in Arizona and may be close to facing hitters, MLB.com reports.07/22
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (knee) moved his rehab assignment up to Triple-A El Paso, walking two and allowing one hit over one-third of an inning in an appearance Tuesday.07/22
  • 15-Day-ILDavid Morgan (RP) — Morgan (knee) began a rehab assignment at the rookie-level Arizona Complex League on Wednesday, yielding one hit and two walks with one strikeout in one-third of an inning, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/16
  • 15-Day-ILJason Adam (RP) — Adam said Friday that an MRI on his right shoulder revealed no major structural damage, and he's hopeful to return from the 15-day injured list in early-to-mid August, MLB.com reports.07/07
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) threw 23 pitches in live batting practice Friday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/25
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session this week, Annie Heilbrunn of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

San Francisco's injury list reads like a scouting report on what's gone wrong all year: Harrison Bader hurt his foot in a scooter accident, Casey Schmitt tore his meniscus, Matt Chapman's abdomen still has no timetable. Rafael Devers has been the one bright spot, delivering the walk-off that snapped a five-game skid last week, but he can't cover four other open lineup spots by himself.

The Giants are 15-plus games back in the NL West and widely expected to sell before next week's deadline, with Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray drawing the most interest. The Padres, meanwhile, sit right in the thick of the wild-card scrum. That contrast in stakes is going to be obvious from the first pitch at 6:40 PM PT.

Sources

MLBSan Francisco GiantsSan Diego PadresPolymarketKalshiRobbie RayJP Sears