On paper, the matchup card is a problem for the Giants. Shohei Ohtani is throwing a 0.97 ERA at people through 6 starts, 42 punchouts in 37 innings, has not allowed more than 2 runs in any outing, and only just gave up his first homers of the year last time out — solo shots from Christian Walker and Braden Shewmake in a 2-1 loss at Houston where he still went 7 strong with 8 strikeouts on 89 pitches. He's been the most unhittable starter in the National League and it isn't particularly close.
Robbie Ray is no slouch either. The 2.76 ERA is real, and he's gone at least 5 innings while allowing 2 earned or fewer in 5 of his 6 outings. The flip side: the walks have crept up — 3-plus in 4 of his last 5 — and the Giants have been shut out in 3 of his 7 starts. He gave up 3 in 6.1 against Tampa his last time out, both runs on solo homers from Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero. If he limits the long ball tonight, this thing turns into the rock-fight everyone expects.
The market sees this how you'd expect a Dodgers home game with Ohtani on the bump to look — LA is a heavy moneyline favorite, but the under at 8 (DK has it at 8.5) is where the action is. The DK ticket count on the Giants moneyline is interesting too. Public is hammering the Dodgers, the sharper number is hanging a little plus EV on the dog. Take it for what it's worth when Ohtani is starting.
- 10-Day-ILDaniel Susac (C) — Susac (elbow) went 2-for-4 in Triple-A Sacramento's 2-1 loss to Reno on Friday.05/10
- 15-Day-ILErik Miller (RP) — Miller (back) yielded one hit and struck out one over a scoreless frame in his first rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday.05/11
- 15-Day-ILLogan Webb (SP) — The Giants placed Webb on the 15-day injured list Saturday due to right knee bursitis, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.05/09
- 60-Day-ILJason Foley (RP) — Foley (shoulder) will make his next rehab appearance for Triple-A Sacramento, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.05/11
- 60-Day-ILJared Oliva (CF) — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRowan Wick (RP) — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHayden Birdsong (RP) — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILReiver Sanmartin (RP) — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRandy Rodriguez (RP) — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJose Butto (RP) — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) has been throwing at the Dodgers' complex in Arizona, per MLB.com.05/10
- 15-Day-ILBrock Stewart (RP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Saturday that he expects Stewart (foot) will be on the 15-day injured list for approximately three weeks, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/10
- 15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — no05/09
- 15-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — no05/10
- 60-Day-ILTommy Edman (2B) — The Dodgers transferred Edman (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/09
- 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
The injury board matters here. LA is already missing Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and Bobby Miller from the rotation and a bullpen full of guys (Edwin Diaz, Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart) who would normally be the late-inning answer when the lineup can't pull away. San Francisco is without Logan Webb, which is how Ray ends up in this slot to begin with, and a long list of relievers. If the Giants can drag this into the 7th tied or ahead, the Dodger bullpen has not been a place to feel comfortable lately.
Sweep talk is premature in a 4-game set, but 3-0 going into Thursday with the Dodger offense flailing and the bullpen depleted would be a genuine NL West tone-setter. Ray vs. Ohtani is the kind of game where one mistake decides it. Pick your poison.