Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

By Bush StaffUpdated 56d ago·2 min read
Los Angeles DodgersLAD(52-30)
San Diego PadresSD(43-37)
153
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LAD
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SD
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-5, 2.65 ERA) gets the ball at 5:40 PM PT, and the timing could not be better for Los Angeles. He has been borderline untouchable in June — a 2.01 ERA across his 3 starts this month, including a stretch where he retired 45 consecutive batters and came within outs of baseball history. On the road specifically, he is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .185 against him away from Dodger Stadium. Randy Vásquez (6-5, 4.17 ERA) gets the start for San Diego, and that is a significant mismatch in favor of the visitors.

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Total
Dodgers(52-30)
LWWWL
15
Padres(43-37)
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3
Best BetDodgers -202
Pregame

The Dodgers are priced as heavy favorites, implying roughly 64% win probability, and the pitching matchup backs up the number. Yamamoto is one of the best starters in baseball right now and Vásquez is a below-average arm at home with a bottom-3 expected ERA. Laying juice on a legitimate ace against a demonstrably struggling starter is exactly the spot this kind of price exists for.

Vásquez showed real promise early in 2026 — he was sitting at a 2.94 ERA through the end of May — but the regression has arrived and it has not been subtle. At Petco Park this season, he is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA, and opposing hitters are batting .294 against him at home. His last outing against Texas was a wreck: 6 earned runs in just 3.1 innings on 8 hits, 3 walks, and 1 strikeout on 72 pitches. Both his expected ERA and expected opponent batting average land in the bottom 3 percentile league-wide, meaning the underlying numbers are even uglier than the surface stats. A Dodgers lineup that just got shut down by an ex-teammate will be looking to make him pay early.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
(9-5)·2.49 ERA
Jun 20 vs Orioles
L
6.0IP
3ER
6K
2BB
102P
06/27 Lineup
San Diego Padres
Kyle Hart
(0-1)·5.23 ERA
06/27 Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(52-30)
Jun 27L@ Padres1-7
Jun 24W@ Twins4-3
Jun 23W@ Twins12-3
Jun 22W@ Twins2-1
Jun 21Lvs Orioles1-12
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(43-37)
Jun 27Wvs Dodgers7-1
Jun 25Wvs Braves5-2
Jun 24Wvs Braves7-6
Jun 23Wvs Braves1-0
Jun 21L@ Rangers3-4

Los Angeles (52-30) holds an 8-game lead in the NL West, so there is no existential pressure here — but getting punched in the mouth 7-1 by Walker Buehler, a guy who won a World Series with you, has a way of creating its own motivation. The Dodgers are also managing a real injury crisis: Will Smith (neck) is on the IL and did not travel with the club on this road trip. Teoscar Hernandez (hamstring) is still working through a Triple-A rehab assignment after three games. Add in Glasnow, Snell, Stone, Miller, and Graterol all sidelined and you have a roster that is leaning heavily on Yamamoto to carry the load. The Padres (43-37) come in having swept the Braves and then knocked off the Dodgers with Buehler, riding genuine confidence heading into the All-Star stretch run.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(16)
  • Day-To-DayChris Campos (SP)
  • 10-Day-ILTeoscar Hernandez (LF)Hernandez (hamstring) has played three rehab games with Triple-A Oklahoma City and has gone 3-for-11 with three home runs and six RBI.06/27
  • 10-Day-ILWill Smith (C)Manager Dave Roberts said Sunday that Smith (neck) won't travel with the Dodgers for their upcoming road trip, which begins Monday and runs through July 1, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.06/21
  • 10-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B)Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.06/19
  • 15-Day-ILBlake Treinen (RP)Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.06/27
  • OutKendall George (CF)George (knee) has been rehabbing at the Dodgers' spring training facility in Arizona and is on track to return after the All-Star break, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP)Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP)Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP)Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP)Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP)Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP)Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP)Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP)Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP)Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP)The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(11)
  • 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth (2B)Cronenworth (concussion), who was expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Thursday with Triple-A El Paso, did not get cleared in time to play, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/26
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C)Campusano (toe) continues to rehab in Arizona but hasn't yet been scheduled for a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.06/14
  • 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP)Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP)Marquez (forearm) struck out three and allowed three earned runs on five hits and three walks across five innings in a rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso.06/22
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP)Waldron (forearm) made his first rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, tossing 2.1 scoreless innings.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP)Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP)Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP)Pivetta (forearm) progressed to throwing from 90 feet with some intensity June 10, per MLB.com.06/14
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP)Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF)Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP)The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

The game turns on how quickly the Dodgers can get to Vásquez and whether they can put the game away before San Diego's bullpen enters to stabilize it. Yamamoto does not need a lot of support to win — he just needs 3 or 4 runs and room to work. That is a perfectly reasonable ask against a starter with a 4.99 home ERA, no strikeout stuff, and contact management that has completely deserted him. Petco Park was supposed to be a problem for the Dodgers this weekend. After Friday, it still might be. But Yamamoto changes the calculus completely.

MLBLos Angeles DodgersSan Diego PadresPolymarketKalshiYoshinobu YamamotoKyle Hart