Ohtani has been borderline unfair on the mound this year. A 0.82 ERA through his first handful of starts is the kind of line that doesn't survive contact with reality for long, but he's been pumping mid-90s with a slider that hitters can't square up, and there's no obvious crack yet. The Padres lineup — Machado, Tatís Jr., Merrill — has been streaky, and per MLB.com the trio is the swing factor for this whole San Diego season.
On the other side, Randy Vásquez is the unsung reason the Padres rotation hasn't completely cratered. He's 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA, the Padres have won every game he's started, and per FanGraphs his fastball is up over a full tick from last year (93.5 to 94.8) with a much sharper whiff profile. He's not Ohtani, but he's been plenty good enough to keep this in a one-run-game zip code.
The market reflects all of that. Dodgers are -162 on the moneyline at Pinnacle with a touch of EV on the away side, while the runline sits at -1.5 because nobody wants to lay a heavier number with Ohtani throwing 6 innings tops. The total is split at 7.5/8 — DraftKings tickets are leaning over, but the sharper money disagrees.
- 15-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (elbow) will undergo the same "nano scope" procedure Tuesday that Tarik Skubal had earlier in May, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Glasnow (back) has not yet resumed throwing off a mound after his back flared up, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILJack Dreyer (RP) — The Dodgers placed Dreyer on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to left shoulder discomfort.05/17
- 15-Day-ILBrock Stewart (RP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Saturday that he expects Stewart (foot) will be on the 15-day injured list for approximately three weeks, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/10
- 60-Day-ILTommy Edman (2B) — Edman (ankle) is expected to begin a rehab assignment within the next few weeks, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.05/19
- 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder/back) is considering surgery, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.05/19
- 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
- 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — no05/10
- 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt (C) — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth (2B) — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) has begun taking part in baseball activities, though he's not yet pain-free and isn't close to a return, per MLB.com.05/18
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) has begun a throwing program, per MLB.com.05/18
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — The Padres placed Waldron on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a right brachialis muscle injury.05/15
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
- OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito (RP) — Brito (forearm) had his minor-league rehab statement moved from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A San Antonio on Sunday, per MLB.com.05/18
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The injury context matters too. The Dodgers are missing Snell and Glasnow from the rotation and a stack of relievers, which is why Ohtani's two-way workload is such a lifeline. The Padres are without Darvish, Musgrove, Pivetta, and Waldron — Vásquez has been carrying a rotation that's basically held together with tape. Whoever blinks first in the middle innings loses this series.
Rubber game, Ohtani on the bump, first-place implications. If you can't get up for this one in mid-May, check your pulse.