Barstool Bush
Predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

By Bush StaffUpdated 29d ago·2 min read
Los Angeles DodgersLAD(65-38)
New York MetsNYM(43-60)
4—3
FINAL
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LAD
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NYM
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This one has the shape of a mismatch on paper, and the records back it up. The Dodgers are 65-38 and coasting on a hot week, the Mets are 43-60 and openly rebuilding on the fly. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the ball for LA off a dominant complete-game win over the Yankees, and he's lined up against Nolan McLean, the Mets rookie who's quietly turned into the one thing this season still worth watching in Flushing.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Dodgers(65-38)
WWLLW
4
Mets(43-60)
LWLWL
3
Best BetDodgers -161
Pregame

The Dodgers are the far better team top to bottom right now, and Yamamoto going up against a rookie gives them a real edge on the mound too. LA has won 3 of its last 5 and has actual playoff stakes; the Mets are playing out a lost season with a shorthanded roster. Backing the Dodgers here is about as straightforward as moneyline reads get.

McLean isn't just a feel-good story anymore. He struck out 10 over 6 scoreless innings against the Phillies his last time out, running his scoreless streak to a career-high 17 innings, and he takes a 7-6 record and 3.34 ERA into Saturday's 7:15 PM ET first pitch. It's the rare bright spot for a Mets team that fired Carlos Mendoza in mid-June and handed the reins to interim manager Andy Green — the first in-season managerial change the club has made since 2008.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
(11-7)·2.76 ERA
Jul 19 @ Yankees
W
9.0IP
2ER
7K
0BB
102P
07/25 Lineup
New York Mets
Nolan McLean
(8-7)·3.51 ERA
Jul 19 @ Phillies
W
6.0IP
0ER
10K
2BB
93P
07/25 Lineup

The Mets' bigger problem is what's happening below the big-league roster. Mark Vientos is out with a fractured hand, Clay Holmes is working back from a fractured fibula and now looks like a trade chip more than a rotation piece, and owner Steve Cohen has all but confirmed the Mets are sellers before the deadline. Nobody in that clubhouse is pretending this is a playoff push.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Friday, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILBlake Treinen (RP) — The Dodgers announced Thursday that Treinen (elbow) has resumed playing catch, per MLB.com.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (elbow) tossed 1.1 innings in a minor-league rehab outing with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, allowing one hit and issuing one walk while striking out four batters on 32 total pitches.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts intimated Tuesday that Diaz (elbow) is likelier to be activated from the 60-day injured list next week than this weekend, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILWill Smith (C) — Manager Dave Roberts said Friday that Smith's neck continued to bother him as he attempted to ramp up his activity, so the Dodgers will fully shut him down for a week, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Glasnow (back) threw a bullpen session this past weekend, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.07/16
  • 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
New York Mets
New York Mets
(7)
  • 10-Day-ILMark Vientos (1B) — Mets interim manager Andy Green said Thursday that Vientos has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.07/10
  • 15-Day-ILAustin Warren (RP) — An MRI on Warren's right forearm revealed no ligament damage Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.07/09
  • 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP) — Holmes (fibula) pitched 2.1 innings, giving up two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out two batters in his rehab start with Triple-A Syracuse on Thursday.07/24
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets announced June 1 that Hagenman (rib) has yet to resume a throwing program, MLB.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08

The Dodgers have their own injury list — Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Edwin Diaz and Will Smith are all still on the shelf — but it hasn't slowed them down. They've won 3 of their last 5, including a wild 9-5 win over Philadelphia last time out, and Yamamoto has been about as steady as a starter gets, carrying a 2.78 ERA into a start where he needed just 102 pitches to finish off the Yankees with 7 strikeouts and zero walks.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(65-38)
Jul 22W@ Phillies9-5
Jul 21W@ Phillies2-1
Jul 20L@ Phillies7-10
Jul 19L@ Yankees1-2
Jul 19W@ Yankees8-2
New York Mets
New York Mets
(43-60)
Jul 22L@ Brewers3-4
Jul 21W@ Brewers4-0
Jul 20L@ Brewers3-8
Jul 19W@ Phillies6-1
Jul 18L@ Phillies1-6

Even without a healthy bullpen behind him — Diaz is still working back from elbow surgery and Treinen, Graterol and Casparius are all shut down for various stretches — the Dodgers have enough pitching and lineup depth to lean on their rotation deep into games, which plays right into a matchup against a Mets team that's rebuilding around one rookie arm and not much margin for error behind him. McLean's stuff is real, but asking a rookie to out-duel the Cy Young frontrunner while his own bullpen and lineup are stretched thin is a tall order.

For the Mets, this series is really about auditioning pieces and building toward next year rather than stealing a game from a contender. For the Dodgers, it's a chance to keep stacking wins on the road before Diaz rejoins the bullpen and the roster gets whole again heading into the stretch run.

Sources

MLBLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsPolymarketKalshiYoshinobu YamamotoNolan McLean