Barstool Bush
Predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 70d ago·2 min read
Arizona DiamondbacksARI(35-34)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(32-36)
1—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
ARI
100000000170
CIN
00100001—231

Michael Soroka (8-3, 3.28) gets the ball at 4:10 PM ET, and he has been the most reliable arm on a Diamondbacks staff that lost Corbin Burnes for the season. Rhett Lowder (3-3, 5.01) draws the home assignment for Cincinnati, working back into form after a shoulder issue cost him most of May.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Diamondbacks(35-34)
WLLLW
1
Reds(32-36)
LLWLL
2
Best BetDiamondbacks -142
Pregame

Soroka is the best pitcher on either staff right now and the price reflects it, but a starter with a 3.28 ERA and 3 of his last 4 outings at 1 run or fewer against a Reds lineup without Elly De La Cruz is worth laying juice on. The Reds have lost 4 of 5 and just dropped game 1 of this series. Back Arizona on the moneyline.

Soroka is the clear edge on paper and on the mound. His last time out he carved up Washington for 7 innings of 1-run ball with 6 strikeouts on 100 pitches, and he has allowed 1 run or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. Lowder, meanwhile, just got activated and looked it — 3 innings, 5 walks, 70 pitches to navigate a short outing against St. Louis. Reds fans will take the clean line, but 5 free passes is a problem against a lineup that just dropped a 5-spot on this same bullpen Friday.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Soroka
(8-3)·3.07 ERA
Jun 7 vs Nationals
W
7.0IP
1ER
6K
2BB
100P
06/13 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Rhett Lowder
(3-5)·4.81 ERA
Jun 7 @ Cardinals
ND
3.0IP
0ER
4K
5BB
70P
06/13 Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(35-34)
Jun 12W@ Reds5-2
Jun 11L@ Marlins0-2
Jun 10L@ Marlins0-8
Jun 9L@ Marlins6-10
Jun 7Wvs Nationals5-1
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(32-36)
Jun 12Lvs Diamondbacks2-5
Jun 10L@ Padres4-5
Jun 10W@ Padres5-3
Jun 9L@ Padres2-6
Jun 7L@ Cardinals3-5

The momentum gap is real. Arizona is 35-34 and rode a 5-2 win Friday into Saturday after a stinker of a Marlins series. The Reds are 32-36, lost 4 of their last 5, and just watched Soroka's counterpart from Friday — not Soroka himself — punch them out. Now Cincinnati has to scratch together runs against a guy who's been the best version of himself since 2019, with a roster missing some serious teeth.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(12)
  • Day-To-DayA.J. Vukovich (CF) — no05/25
  • Day-To-DayDerek Law (RP) — no05/21
  • Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Gurriel (hamstring) began a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League Monday, going 1-for-4 with an RBI single.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILJames McCann (C) — McCann (quad) has started taking machine batting practice and doing catching drills, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — The Diamondbacks paused Puk's (elbow) rehab Friday due to left shoulder discomfort, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.06/12
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.06/07
  • 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(10)
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILElly De La Cruz (SS) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI showed De La Cruz's right hamstring strain to be 90 percent healed, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.06/12
  • 10-Day-ILJose Trevino (C) — Trevino (hamstring) will make one final rehab appearance for Triple-A Louisville before being activated Friday, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.05/22
  • 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan (hamstring) will be re-assessed for strength deficit on Monday, MLB.com reports.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILPierce Johnson (RP) — Johnson (elbow) is expected to toss a bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/07
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters Saturday that Greene (elbow) could return from the 60-day injured list prior to the All-Star break, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/06
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

Cincinnati's injury sheet is the real story here. Elly De La Cruz is still on the 10-day IL with a hamstring (MRI showed it 90% healed per Terry Francona, but he's not in this game), Hunter Greene is on the 60-day, Emilio Pagan and Pierce Johnson are out of the pen, and Ke'Bryan Hayes is sidelined too. That is a lot of high-leverage talent watching from the dugout against a starter who doesn't beat himself.

Arizona has its own holes — Burnes, A.J. Puk's rehab paused again with shoulder discomfort, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Carlos Santana on rehab assignments — but they've got the right guy on the mound to absorb it Saturday. If the D-backs jump on Lowder early, this is a series win in a hurry. If Lowder finds the strike zone he didn't have last week, Great American Ball Park can flip it fast.

Sources

MLBArizona DiamondbacksCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiMichael SorokaRhett Lowder