Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
ARI	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3	8	0
SD	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0

Merrill Kelly draws Griffin Canning in the series finale, first pitch at 6:40 PM PT, and neither arm has been sharp lately. Kelly's 5.71 ERA doesn't scream stopper, but he did battle through 5 innings for the win his last time out against Milwaukee. Canning's been the rougher story all year at 1-6 with a 6.71 ERA, though his last outing against the Cubs at least kept Arizona's lineup somewhat honest before he got pulled after 4.1 innings.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Diamondbacks(45-47)

LLWLW

3

+1.5-178+115o8.5-122

Padres(46-46)

WWLWL

1

-1.5+170-117u8.5+122

Best BetDiamondbacks +104

Pregame

Arizona gets plus money here even after dropping two straight to San Diego, and that price undersells a Diamondbacks club that torched the Padres for 8 runs just three days ago. Kelly's been more durable than Canning of late, and Arizona's offense has shown it can erupt against this staff when it clicks. The value's on the road team getting paid to win a game that's genuinely a coin flip.

San Diego's lineup has options behind Kelly's counterpart, but not all of them are healthy ones. Manny Machado's day-to-day after fouling a ball off his foot, sitting out Wednesday's win with X-rays coming back clean — a break for the Padres, but a reminder how thin this roster's gotten with Freddy Fermin, Samad Taylor and Randy Vasquez all already shelved. Arizona's not much healthier, still without Corbin Burnes, Michael Soroka and Ryne Nelson from a rotation that keeps bleeding arms.

Merrill Kelly

(8-8)·5.12 ERA

Jul 4 vs Brewers

W

5.0IP

2ER

6K

2BB

92P

07/09 Lineup

Griffin Canning

(1-8)·6.67 ERA

Jun 29 @ Cubs

ND

4.1IP

2ER

3K

2BB

75P

07/09 Lineup

Whatever the marketplace makes of it, this series has been anything but predictable — an 8-0 laugher, a tight 4-1 grind, then a 10-4 blowout the other way. That kind of whiplash makes picking a script for game 4 a coin flip at best.

Arizona Diamondbacks

(45-47)

Jul 9L@ Padres4-10

Jul 8L@ Padres1-4

Jul 7W@ Padres8-0

Jul 5Lvs Brewers2-3

Jul 5Wvs Brewers4-3

San Diego Padres

(46-46)

Jul 9Wvs Diamondbacks10-4

Jul 8Wvs Diamondbacks4-1

Jul 7Lvs Diamondbacks0-8

Jul 5W@ Dodgers5-2

Jul 5L@ Dodgers0-3

Luis Campusano and Miguel Andujar carried the Padres' offense in Wednesday's win, with Andujar racking up a career-high three doubles. If that lineup construction holds — even with Machado sidelined — San Diego's capable of putting real pressure on a Diamondbacks pitching staff that's already running on fumes. Arizona still has firepower of its own, evidenced by the 8-0 series-opening rout, but consistency has been the issue all year.

Arizona Diamondbacks

(9)

• 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Manager Torey Lovullo said June 20 that Lawlar will receive further imaging on his strained right hamstring during the All-Star break to gauge his healing, Steve Gilbert MLB.com reports.06/30
• 15-Day-ILMichael Soroka (SP) — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/27
• 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) is expected to be re-evaluated during the first or second week of July, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.06/29
• 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson (SP) — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.06/25
• 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/19
• 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
• 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01
• 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
• 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08

San Diego Padres

(14)

• Day-To-DayManny Machado (3B) — Machado isn't in the lineup for Wednesday's game against Arizona.07/08
• 10-Day-ILSamad Taylor (LF) — Taylor said Wednesday that he exited Tuesday's game against the Diamondbacks with a right side injury, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/08
• 10-Day-ILFreddy Fermin (C) — The Padres placed Fermin on the 10-day injured list Friday with a head bruise, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/04
• 15-Day-ILRandy Vasquez (SP) — no07/09
• 15-Day-ILJason Adam (RP) — Adam said Friday that an MRI on his right shoulder revealed no major structural damage, and he's hopeful to return from the 15-day injured list in early-to-mid August, MLB.com reports.07/07
• 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (RP) — Waldron (forearm) struck out one batter while allowing one run on eight hits and no walks over four innings in a rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso.07/07
• 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (knee) threw a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list June 5, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.07/07
• 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito (elbow) resumed light throwing in late June, per MLB.com.07/03
• 15-Day-ILDavid Morgan (RP) — The Padres recalled Morgan from Triple-A El Paso on Friday.06/29
• OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
• 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.06/29
• 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
• 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
• 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

Both clubs sit within a game of .500, treading water in a NL West that hasn't separated itself yet, which makes every one of these head-to-head games matter more than the standings might suggest at a glance. Thursday's finale won't decide anything by itself, but neither team wants to head into the next stretch on a series loss.