Arizona's larger problem is that the rotation behind Gallen is held together with tape. Corbin Burnes is shut down with a teres major strain, Blake Walston's elbow rehab has stalled, and the bullpen is missing A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, and Andrew Saalfrank. The lineup is patching over Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Jordan Lawlar, Carlos Santana, and James McCann all at once. They're 34-31 anyway, which is honestly impressive, but the margin for error against a hot pitcher is basically zero.
- Day-To-DayA.J. Vukovich (CF) — no05/25
- Day-To-DayDerek Law (RP) — no05/21
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann (C) — McCann (quad) has started taking machine batting practice and doing catching drills, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.06/03
- 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Gurriel (hamstring) appears on track to begin a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League as soon as next Monday, MLB.com reports.06/02
- 60-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.06/07
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Lawlar (wrist) moved his rehab to Triple-A Reno on Thursday and played consecutive games for the Aces. He went a combined 3-for-7 with two doubles, a triple and an RBI.06/06
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/03
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow) allowed one hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance for Triple-A Reno on Tuesday.06/03
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayThomas White (SP) — White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.06/06
- Day-To-DayKemp Alderman (RF) — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILJosh Ekness (RP) — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.06/02
- 15-Day-ILJanson Junk (SP) — The Marlins placed Junk on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shin bone inflammation, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.05/31
- 15-Day-ILEury Perez (SP) — The Marlins placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right gracilis strain.05/29
- OutJesus Tinoco (RP) — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.05/08
- 60-Day-ILGriffin Conine (LF) — Conine (hamstring) appears to be a week or two away from beginning a rehab assignment, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.06/01
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi (RP) — The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.06/01
- 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP) — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.05/22
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP) — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP) — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
The Marlins aren't exactly fully stocked themselves — Eury Perez, Janson Junk, and Robby Snelling are all on the shelf, and Thomas White is expected to miss the rest of the year with a shoulder capsular sprain — but Miami has won 4 of its last 5 and just took the Rays series at home. At 31-35 they're playing better than their record and they're 7-3 in their last 10 home games per the matchup notes.
The pick here writes itself if you trust pitcher form over team brand recognition. Meyer has earned the respect; Gallen hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt in two months. The under 7.5 is interesting if you think Meyer keeps Arizona's banged-up lineup quiet for 6 innings, but Gallen giving up a 3-spot in the first is also extremely on the table. Marlins -122 is the cleanest play on the board.