The mound matchup is the whole story. Kelly is sitting on a 9.20 ERA, has given up 13 earned over his last two starts and walked eight in that span — and now he gets a hot Cubs lineup at Wrigley with the wind doing whatever it wants in May. Matthew Boyd's 7.00 ERA looks ugly until you notice the 33% strikeout rate; the stuff is real even if the runs haven't matched yet.
Arizona's bigger problem is the personnel sheet. Corbin Burnes is still on the 60-day, the bullpen is missing Puk and Justin Martinez, Pavin Smith is post-surgery, and Carlos Santana is only just starting a rehab assignment in Reno. That is a lot to ask of a rotation already leaning on Kelly to be something he hasn't been.
- Day-To-DayKetel Marte (2B) — Marte is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.05/09
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.05/08
- OutDerek Law (RP) — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.05/08
- OutTommy Henry (RP) — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.05/08
- OutA.J. Vukovich (CF) — Vukovich is slashing .263/.333/.485 with 24 home runs, 20 steals on 29 attempts and a 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 115 games for Double-A Amarillo.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPavin Smith (1B) — Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — Harvey was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right triceps Friday, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks (RP) — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd underwent a successful menisectomy Thursday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar (RP) — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
The Cubs aren't perfectly healthy either — Justin Steele is out until after the All-Star break and Cade Horton just had Tommy John — but the bullpen has held up and the lineup keeps producing. Going 22-12 while burying two starters is the kind of thing that gets you taken seriously in the division.
The market sees it the same way the eye test does. Chicago is a sizable home favorite, the public and the money are both on the Cubs side, and the total has crept up to 12 — a number that says oddsmakers also don't trust Kelly to keep this one quiet. If you're hunting an angle, the EV on every side is mildly negative, which usually means the line is doing its job.
Sweep or split, this is a measuring-stick weekend for the Diamondbacks and they're losing it. First pitch 1:20 local, Boyd vs. Kelly, Wrigley loud.