Barstool Bush
Predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

By Bush StaffUpdated 6d ago·2 min read
Arizona DiamondbacksARI(65-58)
Atlanta BravesATL(73-49)
10—3
FINAL
123456789RHE
ARI
03300010310130
ATL
200000001360

Eduardo Rodriguez took the ball for Arizona carrying an 11-4 record and a 2.71 ERA, fresh off a 9-strikeout, 2-run outing against the Dodgers. Grant Holmes started for Atlanta off a scoreless 6 innings against the Yankees his last time out, an ERA of 3.82 that undersold how well he'd been throwing.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Diamondbacks(65-58)
WLLWW
10
Braves(73-49)
LWWLW
3
Best BetBraves -142
Postgame

The Braves lost 10-3, so the moneyline pick missed badly. Holmes' recent form didn't translate, and the bullpen concern in the bear case turned out to be exactly the problem — Atlanta went six innings without a run while Arizona's offense piled on.

Pregame

Atlanta's still the better team on paper and the price reflects it, but this isn't a layup after Arizona just beat them behind a shutout. Holmes has been dominant in August specifically, which is the more relevant data point than his season-long ERA, and that's enough to trust the Braves to bounce back at home.

Arizona was without Ketel Marte, out of the lineup with a day-to-day knee issue, and the Diamondbacks' rotation is already stretched thin with Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Ryne Nelson all on the 60-day injured list. Atlanta had its own holes to manage, with Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach both out long-term and the bullpen missing Reynaldo Lopez and Robert Suarez. Books still made the Braves home favorites, which made this one worth a look regardless of who was missing.

Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
(13-4)·2.61 ERA
Aug 9 vs Dodgers
W
7.0IP
2ER
9K
2BB
115P
08/15 Lineup
Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes
(8-5)·3.64 ERA
Aug 9 @ Yankees
ND
6.0IP
0ER
2K
2BB
77P
08/15 Lineup

None of the pregame math held up once first pitch hit. Atlanta grabbed an early lead and then went quiet for six straight innings while Arizona's lineup kept finding holes.

The Braves scored twice in the first and looked like the team the price said they were. Then Arizona answered with 3 runs in the 2nd and 3 more in the 3rd, and Atlanta's offense simply stopped showing up — six shutout innings sandwiched around a single run in the 9th. Arizona tacked on 3 more of its own in the 9th to turn a comfortable lead into a laugher, finishing with 13 hits to Atlanta's 6.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(65-58)
Aug 14W@ Braves2-0
Aug 12Lvs Rockies4-6
Aug 12Lvs Rockies2-3
Aug 11Wvs Rockies9-0
Aug 9Wvs Dodgers4-2
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(73-49)
Aug 14Lvs Diamondbacks0-2
Aug 12Wvs Mets6-3
Aug 11Wvs Mets4-0
Aug 10Lvs Mets5-8
Aug 9W@ Yankees2-1

This was the second leg of the set, and Arizona had already taken game 1 by a 2-0 score. Two wins in, the Diamondbacks have full control of the series after arriving off a mixed stretch against Colorado. Atlanta, which had taken 2 of 3 from the Mets its last time through a series, now has to find its offense again in a hurry.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(14)
  • Day-To-DayKetel Marte (2B) — Marte (knee) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against Atlanta.08/15
  • 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Lawlar (hamstring) could return from the 10-day injured list during their upcoming road trip that begins Friday in Atlanta, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.08/13
  • 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Gurriel (adductor) took five at-bats in a bridge league game Saturday at the Diamondbacks' extended spring training facility, MLB.com reports.08/10
  • 10-Day-ILTommy Troy (LF) — Troy (shoulder) is likely to participate in extended spring training games this week, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.08/04
  • 15-Day-ILRyan Thompson (RP) — Thompson (back) began a throwing program Monday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.08/13
  • 15-Day-ILDrey Jameson (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Sunday that Jameson (hip) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Reno during the upcoming week, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) struck out two and allowed one hit in a scoreless inning during a rehab appearance Wednesday with Triple-A Reno.08/13
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) struck out two and over a perfect inning in a rehab appearance for Triple-A Reno on Tuesday.08/13
  • 60-Day-ILZac Gallen (SP) — Gallen (elbow) completed a 33-pitch bullpen session in Arizona on Tuesday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.08/11
  • 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow/teres major) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session in Arizona on Tuesday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.08/11
  • 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson (SP) — Nelson (elbow) is expected to begin a bullpen progression within the next 7-to-10 days, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Puk (elbow/shoulder) will remain shut down for the remainder of the season, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) has begun a throwing program, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(7)
  • 15-Day-ILReynaldo Lopez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said that Lopez (knee) completed a bullpen session Tuesday, Jesus Cano of The Athletic reports.08/14
  • 15-Day-ILRobert Suarez (RP) — Suarez (elbow) will advance his throwing progression on flat ground Thursday, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.08/12
  • suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) is still not feeling 100 percent and will have his throwing progression slowed, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.08/12
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Strider (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Monday that Strider (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.08/10
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
  • 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

Rodriguez didn't need his best command to shut this lineup down for a second straight game — Arizona's bats made sure of that well before he had to. For Atlanta, the ugly middle innings and a bullpen already down two key arms are the bigger concern than one bad start from Holmes.

Sources

MLBArizona DiamondbacksAtlanta BravesPolymarketKalshiEduardo RodriguezGrant Holmes