Barstool Bush
Predictions

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

By Bush StaffUpdated 72d ago·2 min read
Chicago CubsCHC(34-33)
Colorado RockiesCOL(25-42)
2—3
FINAL
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CHC
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COL
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First pitch is 7:40 PM CT in Denver, and the pitching matchup tells you most of what you need to know about why Pinnacle has the Cubs at -162. Imanaga is 4-6 with a 4.74 ERA but coming off a 6-inning, 5-strikeout no-decision against the A's. Lorenzen is 2-8 with an 8.01 mark that's somehow the actual ERA and not a typo.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cubs(34-33)
LLWLW
2
Rockies(25-42)
WLLLL
3
Best BetCubs -174
Pregame

Cubs at -162 is the right side even if the price isn't pretty. You're paying for the gap between Imanaga's competence and Lorenzen's 10.03 home ERA, and that gap is real. Fair probability sits at 60.5%, so there's not much edge — but Colorado's depleted outfield makes the lay defensible.

The road/home split is the whole story for Lorenzen — a 4.26 ERA away from Coors, a 10.03 disaster in Denver. He's also leading the entire league in hits allowed. His last time out he got cuffed for 8 earned in 3.1 innings against the Angels, and he hasn't found an answer at altitude all year. The Cubs will see a lot of pitches in the strike zone whether they want to or not.

Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
(4-6)·4.26 ERA
Jun 4 vs Athletics
ND
6.0IP
6ER
5K
1BB
84P
06/10 Lineup
Colorado Rockies
Michael Lorenzen
(2-9)·7.11 ERA
Jun 3 @ Angels
L
3.1IP
8ER
5K
2BB
85P
06/10 Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(34-33)
Jun 10L@ Rockies3-7
Jun 8Lvs Giants1-2
Jun 6Wvs Giants3-2
Jun 5Lvs Giants3-18
Jun 5Wvs Athletics7-6
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
(25-42)
Jun 10Wvs Cubs7-3
Jun 7Lvs Brewers4-12
Jun 7Lvs Brewers1-7
Jun 6Lvs Brewers7-9
Jun 4L@ Angels4-11

Colorado is 25-42 and just dropped 4 of its last 5, but the one win in there was last night's 7-3 thumping of these same Cubs. Chicago, meanwhile, has lost 3 of 4 and is staring at a rotation held together with duct tape — Justin Steele and Cade Horton are 60-day IL, Jameson Taillon is out until after the All-Star break with a hamstring, and Matthew Boyd at least looks close to a return.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(13)
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
  • paternityTrent Thornton (RP) — Thornton (2-1) allowed a run on two hits in an inning of relief to take the loss Monday against the Pirates.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd (knee) has completed his minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa and is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list ahead of the Cubs' three-game series in San Francisco next weekend, Matt Carlson of the Associated Press reports.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
(17)
  • Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo (RP) — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayCase Williams (SP) — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJared Thomas (CF) — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.05/08
  • 7-day ilTyler Freeman (RF) — Freeman was removed from Saturday's game against the Brewers in the bottom of the sixth inning after he was hit by a pitch in the helmet, Kelsey Wingert-Linch of AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain reports.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILBrenton Doyle (CF) — Doyle (oblique) has yet to resume baseball activity, MLB.com reports.06/10
  • 10-Day-ILJordan Beck (LF) — Beck (hamstring) has resumed throwing on the field, MLB.com reports.06/10
  • 10-Day-ILMickey Moniak (LF) — Moniak (ankle) has not begun testing his ability to change direction while running, MLB.com reports.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILChase Dollander (SP) — Dollander (elbow) is trying to schedule a follow-up exam with Dr. Keith Meister, MLB.com reports.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILJimmy Herget (RP) — The Rockies sent Herget (shoulder) to Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILVictor Vodnik (RP) — Vodnik (elbow) was sent to Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILTanner Gordon (RP) — Gordon (0-1) took the loss Sunday, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk over three-plus innings against San Francisco. He struck out two.06/06
  • 60-Day-ILWelinton Herrera (RP) — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.06/02
  • 60-Day-ILMcCade Brown (SP) — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILJose Quintana (SP) — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.05/28
  • 60-Day-ILRJ Petit (RP) — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILPierson Ohl (RP) — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILKris Bryant (DH) — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.05/08

The Rockies' outfield is a triage unit. Brenton Doyle (oblique) hasn't resumed baseball activity, Jordan Beck (hamstring) is only just back to throwing, and Mickey Moniak is still nursing the ankle. Kris Bryant remains a $182M ghost. That's a lot of bats Imanaga doesn't have to navigate, even with the Coors air working against him.

The market read here is straightforward. The number on the Cubs reflects their pitcher and the Rockies' pitcher, in that order. The question is whether you trust a flyball-heavy lefty in the thinnest air in baseball enough to lay the price.

Sources

MLBChicago CubsColorado RockiesPolymarketKalshiShota ImanagaMichael Lorenzen