Barstool Bush
Predictions

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 40d ago·2 min read
Chicago CubsCHC(53-42)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(43-51)
8—4
FINAL
123456789RHE
CHC
200200400890
CIN
004000000490

Matthew Boyd got the ball for Chicago looking to build on a scoreless outing against Baltimore, while Andrew Abbott tried to bounce back for Cincinnati after a hard-luck loss to Philadelphia. First pitch went off at 1:40 PM ET with the Cubs trying to close out the series after dropping Friday's opener.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cubs(53-42)
WLLWW
8
Reds(43-51)
LWLWL
4
Best BetCubs -130
Postgame

Cubs won outright 8-4, cashing the moneyline as the Bregman-led lineup and shaky Reds bullpen both showed up as expected.

Pregame

We took the Cubs at -123 on the moneyline, and that price looked fair given Chicago's deeper lineup and a Cincinnati bullpen that's been one of the worst in baseball. The Reds' rotation had just absorbed the Lodolo blister news the day before, thinning out an already shaky pitching staff. Backing the better team in a series they'd already led felt like the right side even before the game got out of hand.

Boyd wasn't as sharp as his last time out, letting the Reds tag him for four runs in the third, but Cincinnati's lineup went cold after that and never got him again. Abbott, meanwhile, ran into the same problem that's plagued this Reds team all year: he kept them in it, and then the bullpen behind him didn't. A rotation that lost Nick Lodolo to another finger blister just a day earlier isn't exactly stacked with margin for error right now.

Chicago Cubs
Matthew Boyd
(6-1)·3.81 ERA
Jul 7 @ Orioles
W
6.0IP
0ER
7K
2BB
93P
07/12 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott
(5-6)·3.85 ERA
Jul 7 vs Phillies
L
6.0IP
3ER
8K
0BB
95P
07/12 Lineup

That bullpen fragility is exactly why the number on this one crept the way it did before first pitch, and exactly why the eventual final made so much sense. Cincinnati's relief crew has been one of the shakiest in baseball for weeks, and it showed again once the middle innings turned into the late innings.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(53-42)
Jul 11W@ Reds5-3
Jul 10L@ Reds0-4
Jul 9L@ Orioles2-3
Jul 8W@ Orioles9-7
Jul 7W@ Orioles5-2
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(43-51)
Jul 11Lvs Cubs3-5
Jul 10Wvs Cubs4-0
Jul 9Lvs Phillies0-1
Jul 8Wvs Phillies11-5
Jul 7Lvs Phillies1-4

Alex Bregman has quietly been the story of this series and this stretch for Chicago. He's been finding his stroke again after a slow start to the year, and a lineup getting him going at the right time is bad news for anybody trying to hang with the Cubs in a series. Cincinnati, on the other hand, keeps getting good enough starting pitching to be in games and not nearly enough behind it to finish them.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(14)
  • 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.07/04
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Taillon (hamstring) is expected to make another rehab start before returning from the 15-day injured list, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/07
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Cabrera (hamstring) resumed a throwing program this weekend, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.07/06
  • 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP) — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP) — Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports.06/25
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Steele (elbow) was cleared to begin ramping up his throwing program Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(7)
  • 10-Day-ILMatt McLain (2B) — The Reds placed McLain on the 10-day injured list with a strained calf, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.07/10
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 10-Day-ILDane Myers (CF) — Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo (SP) — Lodolo (finger) will likely require a stint on the injured list, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.07/12
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28

Both injury boards are ugly, but they're ugly in different ways. Chicago's issues are almost entirely pitching depth — Steele, Taillon and Cabrera all rehabbing, plus a run of relievers on the shelf — yet the big-league roster keeps finding ways to win games anyway. Cincinnati's are spreading into the everyday lineup with McLain, Dunn and Myers all out, and now the rotation just took another hit with Lodolo headed to the IL.

The seventh inning was the whole game in miniature. A one-run margin turned into a four-run cushion the instant Cincinnati had to dig into that bullpen, and Chicago made sure there was no path back.

The Cubs leave Cincinnati having taken the series and gotten another sign that Bregman is heating up at the right time. The Reds leave it with more questions than answers — a rotation piece down, a bullpen still bleeding runs, and a lineup that can't afford to lose more bodies if it wants to climb back toward .500.

Sources

MLBChicago CubsCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiMatthew BoydAndrew Abbott