Jack Leiter is the obvious pressure point. He has given up 3+ earned runs in 4 straight starts, his last 3 outings carry a 6.91 ERA, and manager Skip Schumaker has already publicly acknowledged Leiter has been pitching through an ankle issue. Add in that opponents are hitting .270 off him at Globe Life and a Cubs lineup that has scored at will for two weeks, and you can see why the market shaded this one toward Chicago.
On the other side, Cabrera has quietly been one of the more reliable arms on a Cubs staff that has had to be reliable, because the injury report on Chicago's pitching is genuinely brutal. Justin Steele is out until after the All-Star break, Cade Horton and Shelby Miller are on the 60-day, Matthew Boyd just had a knee scope, and Hunter Harvey was the latest casualty with a stress reaction in his triceps. The fact that they are 27-12 anyway is the story of the season so far.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — Harvey was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right triceps Friday, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks (RP) — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd underwent a successful menisectomy Thursday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar (RP) — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott (SS) — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.04/07
- 10-Day-ILCody Freeman (3B) — Freeman (back) has resumed baseball activities, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILWyatt Langford (LF) — Langford (forearm) rejoined the Rangers in Detroit on Saturday and will rest for a full week before being reevaluated by the team, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJosh Smith (2B) — The Rangers placed Smith on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right glute strain.05/08
- 15-Day-ILChris Martin (RP) — Martin (biceps) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILRobert Garcia (RP) — Garcia (shoulder) began throwing from 80 feet out Friday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILLuis Curvelo (RP) — The Rangers placed Curvelo on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right shoulder impingement, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCarter Baumler (RP) — Baumler (intercostal) allowed one run on two hits over one inning in a rehab appearance at Triple-A Round Rock last Wednesday.05/08
- OutDeclan Cronin (RP) — Cronin (elbow) signed a two-year, minor-league contract with the Rangers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.05/08
- OutNabil Crismatt (SP) — Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJordan Montgomery (SP) — Montgomery (elbow) will throw his fifth bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCody Bradford (SP) — Bradford (elbow) experienced a setback in his throwing program and will be shut down for at least a few days, MLB.com reports.05/08
Texas is shorthanded too, in ways that actually matter for tonight. Wyatt Langford is still parked on the 10-day with the forearm, Josh Smith is on the IL, and Sebastian Walcott is not a 2026 factor at all. That is a lot of offense to replace against a pitcher with a 3.27 ERA, on a night where you really need to put a crooked number on the board to take pressure off Leiter.
The number tells you the obvious thing: Chicago is the play on paper, and the public is on Chicago, and the EV on either side is pretty meh. If you are looking for a sweat, the under at 8.5 is the one that catches the eye given Cabrera's form, with the very real caveat that Leiter at home under the lights has been a homer machine. Pick your poison. The Cubs have not lost in 10 games. Eventually somebody beats them. Probably not tonight.