Barstool Bush
Predictions

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

By Bush StaffUpdated 26d ago·2 min read
Chicago CubsCHC(59-45)
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(53-52)
7—8
FINAL
123456789RHE
CHC
0103000127120
PIT
03401000—8110

Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.92 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago fresh off a rocky return from the injured list, while Braxton Ashcraft (9-4, 4.09 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh looking to snap a rough patch of his own in the series finale at 1:35 PM ET.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cubs(59-45)
WWLWL
7
Pirates(53-52)
LLLWP
8
Best BetPirates -131
Postgame

Hit — the Pirates found their offense in a hurry and held off a late Cubs rally to win 8-7.

Pregame

We're sticking with Pittsburgh on the moneyline even after Chicago hammered them twice this series, and the price moved in the Cubs' favor pregame, drifting from +113 to +126 as the market leaned away from the home side. That made the Pirates the value play getting plus-money value relative to their true form, and Ashcraft at home against a Cubs lineup that had just seen him once in this series was the right side to lean on.

Ashcraft made the All-Star team this year and has quietly been Pittsburgh's most reliable arm, but he was rocked for 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last outing against the Yankees. Taillon isn't in much better shape — he lasted only 4.1 innings in his return start against Detroit, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits. Neither guy is walking into this one with momentum, which sets up a game that could get away from both bullpens in a hurry.

Chicago Cubs
Jameson Taillon
(2-6)·5.96 ERA
Jul 20 vs Tigers
ND
4.1IP
4ER
6K
2BB
75P
07/26 Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft
(11-5)·4.08 ERA
Jul 20 @ Yankees
L
3.0IP
7ER
2K
1BB
74P
07/26 Lineup

Chicago rolled into this series white-hot, having taken the first two games by a combined 14-2 margin, including an 11-0 no-doubter behind Shota Imanaga on Saturday. Pittsburgh had dropped 3 straight before Sunday and needed a response in the worst way to avoid the sweep.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(59-45)
Jul 25W@ Pirates11-0
Jul 24W@ Pirates3-2
Jul 23Lvs Tigers1-5
Jul 22Wvs Tigers11-2
Jul 21Lvs Tigers6-8
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(53-52)
Jul 25Lvs Cubs0-11
Jul 24Lvs Cubs2-3
Jul 22L@ Yankees0-2
Jul 22W@ Yankees5-3
Jul 21P@ Yankees0-0

The Pirates' lineup had gone ice-cold across the first two losses of this series, managing all of 2 runs combined, so any life at the plate on Sunday was a meaningful sign for a club trying to stay in the wild-card mix. Chicago, meanwhile, has been mashing the ball in Pittsburgh all weekend and came in with the deeper, healthier roster on paper.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(15)
  • Day-To-DayTrent Thornton (RP) — Thornton was removed from Monday's game against the Tigers after being struck on the left foot by a comebacker, Mike McGraw of the Chicago Daily Herald reports.07/21
  • 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw is still feeling discomfort related to his left hand sprain and has yet to resume swinging a bat, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Palencia (elbow) is scheduled to throw an up-and-down bullpen session Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/26
  • 15-Day-ILPhil Maton (RP) — The Cubs placed Maton on the 15-day injured list Monday with right knee tendinitis, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Brown (neck) has begun to increase his activity and has taken part in workouts with plyometric balls, MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP) — Roberts (forearm) tossed a perfect inning in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Iowa.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that the Cubs expect Cabrera (hamstring) to return from the injured list in the second week of August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Milner (abdomen) will likely return from the injured list sometime around Aug. 1, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs announced July 5 that Miller (elbow) has resumed a throwing program in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — Manager Craig Counsell said July 8 that Harvey (triceps/shoulder) has resumed a throwing program at the Cubs' facility in Arizona, but the right-hander remains without a clear timeline for a return from the 60-day injured list, MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Steele (elbow) was cleared to begin ramping up his throwing program Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(7)
  • 7-Day ILRafael Flores Jr. (C) — The Pirates placed Flores on the 7-day concussion injured list Friday.07/24
  • 10-Day-ILEndy Rodriguez (C) — Rodriguez (glute) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Friday, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.07/24
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B) — Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/21
  • 15-Day-ILEvan Sisk (RP) — Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/04
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF) — The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS) — The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/11

Both bullpens are banged up in different ways — Chicago is without Daniel Palencia, Phil Maton and a handful of relief arms on the IL, while Pittsburgh is missing catcher depth and a couple of relievers of its own. That thinner margin for error showed up in a game that saw both offenses find their footing.

This one had the shape of a laugher through 3 innings, with Pittsburgh building a 7-1 lead by the end of the second before Chicago clawed all the way back and even had a shot in the ninth. The Pirates held on 8-7 to salvage the finale and avoid the sweep, snapping their own mini-slide in the process. It's the kind of back-and-forth game that reminds you series sweeps in this league are never as automatic as a 14-2 head start makes them look.

Sources

MLBChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesPolymarketKalshiJameson TaillonBraxton Ashcraft