Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

By Bush StaffUpdated 29d ago·2 min read
Chicago CubsCHC(57-45)
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(53-50)
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PIT
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Matthew Boyd (6-1, 4.15 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago in the series opener, and he's not the same guy who missed most of the spring and early summer. Jared Jones (2-1, 4.05 ERA) counters for Pittsburgh, and lately he's been the best pitcher on either roster.

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Cubs(57-45)
LWLWW
3
Pirates(53-50)
LWPLW
2
Best BetCubs -103
Pregame

The Cubs are getting plus money here despite being the better team by record and by recent form, which is the definition of value. Boyd's rediscovered his pre-injury form over his last 4 starts, and Chicago's lineup has been slugging at a healthy clip even while the bullpen situation is a mess. Backing the Cubs to win outright at a plus price is the easy lean.

Jones has been the story of the Pirates' rotation in July. Across his last 3 starts he's racked up 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks over 15 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs in that stretch. That's the version of Jones scouts were promising before elbow surgery cost him all of 2025 — and it's arriving at exactly the moment Pittsburgh needs a reason to believe in this rotation.

Chicago Cubs
Matthew Boyd
(7-1)·3.59 ERA
Jul 18 vs Twins
W
6.0IP
1ER
4K
1BB
91P
07/24 Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jared Jones
(2-3)·4.02 ERA
Jul 18 @ Guardians
W
5.0IP
1ER
9K
1BB
74P
07/24 Lineup

Boyd, meanwhile, has quietly turned into one of the better stories in the Cubs' clubhouse. He missed nearly 3 weeks in April with a bicep strain and over 6 weeks in May and June with a shoulder issue, but he's posted a 2.08 ERA over his last 4 starts and thrown at least 6 innings in 3 straight. His last time out, he beat the Twins on one run allowed over 6 innings. The stuff is legitimately back.

Where this gets complicated for Chicago is everywhere else on the pitching staff. The Cubs' injury list reads like a bullpen depth chart in itself — Phil Maton, Shelby Miller, Hunter Harvey, Ben Brown, Ethan Roberts, Daniel Palencia and Hoby Milner are all out, and Trent Thornton just got drilled by a comebacker. Craig Counsell has been piecing together relief innings all month, and it showed in Wednesday's 1-5 loss to Detroit that closed out a split series at Wrigley.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(15)
  • Day-To-DayTrent Thornton (RP)Thornton was removed from Monday's game against the Tigers after being struck on the left foot by a comebacker, Mike McGraw of the Chicago Daily Herald reports.07/21
  • 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF)Shaw is still feeling discomfort related to his left hand sprain and has yet to resume swinging a bat, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILPhil Maton (RP)The Cubs placed Maton on the 15-day injured list Monday with right knee tendinitis, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP)Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Brown (neck) has begun to increase his activity and has taken part in workouts with plyometric balls, MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP)Roberts (forearm) tossed a perfect inning in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Iowa.07/20
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP)Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Palencia (elbow) is hopeful to return to the Cubs' bullpen in mid-August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP)Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that the Cubs expect Cabrera (hamstring) to return from the injured list in the second week of August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP)Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Milner (abdomen) will likely return from the injured list sometime around Aug. 1, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP)The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP)The Cubs announced July 5 that Miller (elbow) has resumed a throwing program in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP)Manager Craig Counsell said July 8 that Harvey (triceps/shoulder) has resumed a throwing program at the Cubs' facility in Arizona, but the right-hander remains without a clear timeline for a return from the 60-day injured list, MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP)Steele (elbow) was cleared to begin ramping up his throwing program Tuesday, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.07/08
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP)The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP)The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B)The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(7)
  • Day-To-DayJake Mangum (CF)Mangum was scratched for the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Yankees due to right foot discomfort.07/22
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B)Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/21
  • 10-Day-ILEndy Rodriguez (C)Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta.07/08
  • 15-Day-ILEvan Sisk (RP)Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.07/04
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP)Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF)The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILKonnor Griffin (SS)The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports.07/11

Pittsburgh isn't exactly whole either. Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin are both out for the year on the 60-day IL, Endy Rodriguez is nursing a hip issue, and Jake Mangum got scratched from Wednesday's doubleheader with foot discomfort. But the lineup that's still standing has found some thump — the Pirates have hit 15 home runs over their last 10 games and are slugging .448 in that span, a real jump for a team that's leaned on pitching and defense for most of the year.

The Cubs counter with their own recent power binge, an 11-2 blowout of Detroit among the highlights, and they're slugging .422 with 33 extra-base hits over their own last 10. Both offenses have shown they can put crooked numbers on the board in a hurry, which sets up an interesting contrast against two starters who've both been trending the right direction.

Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(57-45)
Jul 23Lvs Tigers1-5
Jul 22Wvs Tigers11-2
Jul 21Lvs Tigers6-8
Jul 19Wvs Twins10-1
Jul 18Wvs Twins6-2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(53-50)
Jul 22L@ Yankees0-2
Jul 22W@ Yankees5-3
Jul 21P@ Yankees0-0
Jul 20L@ Yankees5-8
Jul 19W@ Guardians7-1

First pitch at PNC Park is set for 6:40 PM ET, with Chicago holding a 4-game edge in the standings and looking to avoid a series that slips away the way the Detroit set did. Jones' emergence gives Pittsburgh a puncher's chance to flip the script, but the Cubs have the deeper lineup and, on paper, the healthier version of their starter walking to the mound.

MLBChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesPolymarketKalshiMatthew BoydJared Jones