The one thing Chicago has going for them is Ben Brown, who keeps doing this no matter how dark everything around him gets. He's sporting a 2.09 ERA with a 40:12 K:BB across 38.2 innings, and per Bleacher Nation he was bumped into the rotation after Matthew Boyd's knee landed him on the IL. The Cubs needed a starter to be a problem for opposing lineups. Brown has obliged.
Carmen Mlodzinski gets the ball for Pittsburgh at 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA — not flashy, but he's been the Pirates' steadiest starter for stretches this year and the home crowd at PNC should give him every chance to settle in early. The under at 8 isn't shocking with these two on the bump, though Mlodzinski's WHIP has been the kind of number that can let games get away from him in a hurry.
Injuries are the subplot you can't ignore here. The Cubs are basically running a triage unit — Justin Steele (60-day), Cade Horton (60-day), Boyd, and now Edward Cabrera pulled from his last start with a blister on his middle finger. Pittsburgh isn't whole either, with Ryan O'Hearn looking at a 4-week absence with the quad strain and Joey Bart still banged up behind the plate. Jared Jones threw a bullpen Tuesday, though, so reinforcements are at least visible on the horizon.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — Shaw went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and an additional run scored in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Padres.05/22
- 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cabrera was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with a blister on his right middle finger, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.05/24
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — Boyd (knee) is scheduled to throw off a mound Saturday and is on track for a full bullpen session next week, Tony Andracki of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that O'Hearn's right quadriceps strain is considered "moderate" and will likely keep him on the injured list for around four weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.05/17
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — General manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Jones (elbow) will return to Pittsburgh and throw a bullpen session Tuesday before the Pirates determine whether he'll return from the 60-day injured list during the upcoming week, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/24
Cubs are the favorite, but they've been favored in most of these recent losses too. If Brown gives them 5-plus quality innings, this is a game they probably win. If he doesn't, the bullpen is a coin flip and the Pirates know how to grind an opposing pen at home. Lean Brown, sweat the middle innings.