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Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

By Bush StaffUpdated 16d ago·2 min read
St. Louis CardinalsSTL(56-58)
New York YankeesNYY(64-50)
3—1
FINAL
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STL
000030000392
NYY
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Andre Pallante (11-6, 3.63 ERA) and Will Warren (8-5, 4.18 ERA) turned this into exactly the pitchers' duel the matchup promised. Warren had been the best version of himself in his last outing, blanking the Cubs for 6.2 innings without walking a batter, and he carried that form deep into this one before the Cardinals finally cracked him.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cardinals(56-58)
LWWLL
3
Yankees(64-50)
WLWLW
1
Best BetYankees -157
Postgame

Wrong call. The injury-thinned lineup we flagged as the real risk factor never got going against Pallante, managing just one run on a walk-in the sixth. Warren's form from his last start didn't carry over — St. Louis broke through for three in the fifth, and that was the whole game.

Pregame

The Yankees are solid favorites here and they just backed it up with a 2-0 shutout of this same Cardinals lineup. St. Louis is playing out the string as sellers after moving Dustin May, JoJo Romero and Lars Nootbaar at the deadline, and that gap in stakes shows up on the field more often than not. Warren's building real momentum off his best start of the year, which tips this further toward New York.

St. Louis had already shown it could hit Yankee Stadium pitching this series, and the lineup card told part of the story: Jordan Walker sat again with knee inflammation, thinning an outfield that still found a way to produce. On the other side, New York took the field without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Bellinger and two rotation arms in Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt — injuries that had been piling up for weeks and finally caught up with a lineup missing too much thump.

Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
(12-6)·3.57 ERA
Jul 30 vs Cubs
ND
6.1IP
2ER
3K
2BB
90P
08/05 Lineup
Will Warren
Will Warren
(8-6)·4.42 ERA
Jul 31 @ Cubs
W
6.2IP
0ER
7K
0BB
88P
08/05 Lineup

It set up as a coin flip on paper, tight enough that the sportsbooks kept the total under 9 runs and installed the Yankees as modest home favorites. The Cardinals had other ideas.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(56-58)
Aug 4L@ Yankees0-2
Aug 3W@ Yankees13-7
Aug 2W@ Blue Jays5-1
Aug 1L@ Blue Jays1-5
Jul 31L@ Blue Jays1-3
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
(64-50)
Aug 4Wvs Cardinals2-0
Aug 3Lvs Cardinals7-13
Aug 2W@ Cubs2-1
Aug 1L@ Cubs2-5
Jul 31W@ Cubs2-0

The fifth inning decided it. JJ Wetherholt ripped a two-run double, Iván Herrera followed with an RBI double of his own, and just like that St. Louis had the only cushion it would need. New York clawed a run back in the sixth on a Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI walk, but that's as close as it got — Ryne Stanek escaped a bases-loaded jam in the eighth for the Yankees, and Riley O'Brien slammed the door with the save.

Defense mattered too — Trent Grisham and George Lombard Jr. both came up with diving plays to keep the margin where it was — but St. Louis simply got the bigger swing when it counted. For a Cardinals club still hovering under .500, taking 2 of 3 from a first-place Yankees team missing this much of its middle of the order is the kind of series that keeps a fringe roster believing.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(3)
  • Day-To-DayJordan Walker (RF) — Walker (knee) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.08/05
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias (elbows) has been sent to Triple-A Memphis to resume a rehab assignment, John Denton of Roundtable.io reports.08/04
  • 60-Day-ILMax Rajcic (RP) — Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction.07/23
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
(5)
  • 10-Day-ILCody Bellinger (LF) — Bellinger (hamstring) has been doing some outdoor running while also hitting and throwing, per MLB.com.08/04
  • 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton (DH) — Stanton (calf) took swings against Carlos Rodon (elbow) on Monday, MLB.com reports.08/04
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodon (SP) — Manager Aaron Boone said Rodon (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment Saturday, likely with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.08/04
  • 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt (SP) — Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that he expects Schmidt (elbow/forearm) to play catch Thursday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.08/05
  • 60-Day-ILAaron Judge (RF) — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Judge (rib) has been cleared to begin light activities, which includes outdoor running and upper-body resistance work, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.08/05

For New York, this one stings less about the standings — the Yankees are still 64-50 and well positioned — and more about the reminder that a lineup this banged up can't afford many nights where the offense goes quiet. Get Judge, Stanton and Bellinger back healthy and this is a different team; until then, series like this one are the cost of doing business.

Sources

MLBSt. Louis CardinalsNew York YankeesPolymarketKalshiAndre PallanteWill Warren