Barstool Bush
Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

By Bush StaffUpdated 64d ago·2 min read
St. Louis CardinalsSTL(40-33)
Kansas City RoyalsKC(31-45)
5—6
FINAL
123456789RHE
STL
101000003581
KC
00041100—690

Michael McGreevy (3-5, 2.99) draws Seth Lugo (2-4, 3.86) in game 2, and the matchup is way more interesting than the records suggest. McGreevy has been quietly excellent — 10 of 14 starts allowing 2 runs or fewer — but hasn't picked up a win since May 8. Lugo is making his first start back from the 7-day concussion IL after a 3.1-inning, 44-pitch tune-up against Texas on June 10.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cardinals(40-33)
LLWWL
5
Royals(31-45)
WWLLW
6
Best BetCardinals -126
Pregame

McGreevy has been one of the more underrated arms in the NL — sub-3.00 ERA and consistently keeping his team in games — and he's facing a Lugo who threw 44 pitches in his last outing 9 days ago coming off a concussion. The Cardinals are fairly priced as small favorites and the lone tracked sharp bet on this game is on St. Louis. Lean Cardinals.

The bigger story heading into Friday is what the Royals look like without Bobby Witt Jr. on the field. Witt homered, singled in a run, and then exited Thursday's 14-6 win with right knee discomfort after a sliding stop at short. He's listed day-to-day and it's the same knee that bothered him earlier this month, which is not the kind of recurring note you want as a Royals fan.

St. Louis Cardinals
Michael McGreevy
(3-7)·3.12 ERA
Jun 14 @ Twins
ND
6.0IP
2ER
2K
2BB
89P
06/19 Lineup
Kansas City Royals
Seth Lugo
(3-6)·4.20 ERA
Jun 10 vs Rangers
ND
3.1IP
1ER
2K
1BB
44P
06/19 Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(7)
  • Day-To-DaySem Robberse (SP) — Robberse (elbow) has been sent to the Cardinals' Florida Complex League affiliate to begin a rehab assignment.06/16
  • Day-To-DayPacky Naughton (RP) — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/14
  • Day-To-DayVictor Santos (RP) — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayIxan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.05/08
  • Day-To-DayZack Thompson (RP) — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILRyan Fernandez (RP) — Fernandez (back) is on track to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.06/15
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.06/12
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
(15)
  • Day-To-DayBobby Witt Jr. (SS) — Witt went 3-for-4 with a walk, a run scored, an RBI and a stolen base in Tuesday's 6-4 loss to the Nationals.06/19
  • Day-To-DayMaikel Garcia (3B) — Garcia (hand) remains out of the lineup for Thursday's game versus the Cardinals.06/18
  • Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli (SP) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayJavier Vaz (2B) — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.05/08
  • Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero (RP) — no05/08
  • 7-Day ILSeth Lugo (SP) — Lugo (concussion) is expected to be reinstated from the 7-day injured list to start Friday against the Nationals, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.06/16
  • 10-Day-ILVinnie Pasquantino (1B) — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said that Pasquantino underwent surgery Sunday to remove a fractured hamate bone in his right hand and will face a recovery timeline of roughly 4-6 weeks, Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City reports.06/14
  • 10-Day-ILKyle Isbel (CF) — Isbel has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 tear of a portion of his left plantar fasciitis.06/11
  • 15-Day-ILNick Mears (RP) — Mears (shoulder) threw a bullpen Tuesday and could go on a rehab assignment soon, MLB.com reports.06/18
  • 15-Day-ILKris Bubic (SP) — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said Sunday that Bubic underwent another MRI that showed nothing structurally wrong with his left elbow or shoulder, Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City reports.06/14
  • 60-Day-ILCole Ragans (SP) — The Royals transferred Ragans (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.06/17
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Estevez (RP) — The Royals transferred Estevez (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.06/15
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan India (2B) — no06/04
  • 60-Day-ILJames McArthur (RP) — McArthur (elbow) underwent surgery Friday to help combat continued soreness and inflammation, MLB.com reports.05/25
  • 60-Day-ILAlec Marsh (SP) — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08

Even without Witt for a chunk of the night, KC put up a 17-hit, 5-double offensive eruption in the series opener. Jac Caglianone and Salvador Perez both went deep, and every one of the first 8 hitters in the order drove in a run. That's a season-best output against a Cardinals club that had just been swept out of a home series by San Diego, dropping the finale 6-1 before getting buried 14-6 Thursday. Three straight losses, 26 runs allowed in 2 of them — the pitching staff needs McGreevy to eat innings.

The Cardinals counter with a lineup that's still 40-33 and 9 games over .500, but the rotation depth keeps getting tested. Sem Robberse is out on a rehab assignment, Ixan Henderson is shelved, and the bullpen has Ryan Fernandez and Packy Naughton sidelined (Naughton is headed for UCL surgery). KC's own pitching staff is worse off — Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are both on the IL, Alec Marsh is on the 60-day, and closer Carlos Estevez was just transferred to the 60-day IL too.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(40-33)
Jun 18L@ Royals6-14
Jun 17Lvs Padres1-6
Jun 16Wvs Padres3-2
Jun 15Wvs Padres3-0
Jun 14L@ Twins4-5
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
(31-45)
Jun 18Wvs Cardinals14-6
Jun 17W@ Nationals6-2
Jun 16L@ Nationals4-6
Jun 15L@ Nationals3-7
Jun 14Wvs Astros4-0

Add in Vinnie Pasquantino (hamate surgery, 4-6 weeks) and Kyle Isbel (Grade 3 plantar fascia tear) already out for KC, plus Maikel Garcia's hand keeping him out of the lineup, and the Royals are leaning hard on Caglianone, Perez, and whatever they can squeeze out of the back of the order. Beat one of the league's stingiest starters with that group two nights in a row and the rebuild conversation gets louder in a hurry.

Sources

MLBSt. Louis CardinalsKansas City RoyalsPolymarketKalshiMichael McGreevySeth Lugo