Barstool Bush
Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 3d ago·2 min read
St. Louis CardinalsSTL(64-62)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(60-65)
3—0
FINAL
123456789RHE
STL
000010110370
CIN
000000000031

Kyle Leahy took the ball for St. Louis looking to build on a start where he'd allowed just 1 earned run over 5.0 innings against the Phillies, while Andrew Abbott went out trying to shake off a rough turn against the White Sox that saw him charged with 5 earned runs in only 4.1 innings. Leahy was the sharper of the two all night, and Abbott never found the fix.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cardinals(64-62)
LWWWL
3
Reds(60-65)
WLLLW
0
Best BetCardinals -111
Postgame

The gap in form and pitching held up exactly as argued — Leahy worked deep and clean while Abbott and the Reds bullpen never found an answer, and Cincinnati's 3-hit night made the moneyline pick look conservative in hindsight. St. Louis won it outright without needing a late scare, which is as clean a result as this pick could have asked for.

Pregame

Leahy's turnaround from bullpen arm to front-line starter has been one of the better stories in the Cardinals' rotation, and he's pitching like it right now. Abbott, on the other hand, has been fighting his command for weeks and hasn't looked like the pitcher he was a year ago. St. Louis is the side to trust here.

Cincinnati took the field missing more than just its usual bench depth — Spencer Steer is still working back from a wrist injury and Blake Dunn is already out for the season after an elbow issue landed him on the 60-day IL, two more erosions to an offense that came in shorthanded up the middle. St. Louis, a day removed from splitting a doubleheader with these same Reds, leaned on Leahy to keep the line moving instead.

Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
(10-4)·3.24 ERA
Aug 12 vs Phillies
W
5.0IP
1ER
6K
0BB
81P
08/18 Lineup
Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott
(6-8)·4.07 ERA
Aug 13 @ White Sox
ND
4.1IP
5ER
3K
3BB
93P
08/18 Lineup

The pregame math had leaned on Cincinnati getting a cushion at home and a total built for a tighter, lower-scoring track — a number that fit two offenses that have traded results with this same opponent all week. The Reds bats never showed up to test it.

St. Louis broke the scoreless tie in the 5th and tacked on again in the 7th and 8th, spreading its 3 runs out instead of leaning on one big inning. Leahy's final line backed up the trend from his last outing, working deep enough to hand a clean lead to the bullpen, and Cincinnati's lineup managed only 3 hits against the St. Louis arms across nine innings. An error on the Reds' side didn't help matters either.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(64-62)
Aug 17L@ Reds5-6
Aug 17W@ Reds2-1
Aug 16W@ Cubs11-4
Aug 15W@ Cubs8-4
Aug 14L@ Cubs0-3
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(60-65)
Aug 17Wvs Cardinals6-5
Aug 17Lvs Cardinals1-2
Aug 16Lvs Marlins1-7
Aug 15Lvs Marlins4-8
Aug 14Wvs Marlins1-0

The form card tells a similar story from both dugouts — St. Louis came in over .500 across its last stretch, while Cincinnati had been scuffling before its win in the nightcap of that doubleheader snapped a mini-slide. Depth is where the two clubs really separate, and that gap shows up clearest in who's missing entirely.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(2)
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias (elbows) has been sent to Triple-A Memphis to resume a rehab assignment, John Denton of Roundtable.io reports.08/04
  • 60-Day-ILMax Rajcic (RP) — Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction.07/23
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Steer (1B) — Steer (wrist) is scheduled to have a splint removed from his right wrist Monday, MLB.com reports.08/10
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Santillan (oblique) could be activated to the major-league roster later this week, Mike Petraglia of MLB.com reports.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) struck out two and allowed one earned run on five hits and no walks across 3.2 innings in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Louisville.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) will be out for 12-to-18 months after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.08/13
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — The Reds transferred Dunn (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Thursday.08/06
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/18

Hunter Greene's season ended for good recently when a second Tommy John surgery was confirmed, Graham Ashcraft is still building back arm strength in Arizona, and Brandon Williamson is only up to rehab starts — that's three rotation arms Cincinnati simply doesn't have right now. St. Louis has its own absences in Ramon Urias and Max Rajcic, but neither was going to swing a game against a Reds team already running on fumes on the mound.

MLBSt. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiKyle LeahyAndrew Abbott