Barstool Bush
Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Game 2

By Bush StaffUpdated 4d ago·2 min read
St. Louis CardinalsSTL(64-61)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(59-65)
2—1
FINAL
123456789RHE
STL
200000000270
CIN
000100000130

Andre Pallante got the ball for the second game of Monday's twin bill, riding a clean final tune-up — 6 shutout innings against the Phillies his last time out — into a 6:40 PM ET first pitch at Great American Ball Park. Rhett Lowder had the tougher assignment on paper, a 5.11 ERA on the season and a loss in his last outing against the White Sox, with Cincinnati needing length after already burning bullpen arms earlier in the day.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Cardinals(64-61)
WWWLW
2
Reds(59-65)
LLLWW
1
Best BetCardinals -115
Postgame

The moneyline case held up cleanly: St. Louis got its runs early, Pallante and the bullpen protected the lead, and the Cardinals never trailed. The pre-game read on the gap between these two rosters played out almost exactly as written.

Pregame

St. Louis has simply been the sharper club, and Pallante gives them a real edge on the mound against a Reds lineup that's been ice cold. Lowder has shown flashes this year, but he's still finding his footing after a shaky stretch, and Cincinnati's overall form makes backing the home side a tough sell right now. This lines up as a spot where the better team should just win.

The Reds have spent weeks trying to piece together a rotation without Hunter Greene, who's out 12-to-18 months after a second Tommy John surgery, and Brandon Williamson, still working back from a shoulder issue in Triple-A Louisville. Lowder's actually been the bright spot in that mess lately — his ERA over his previous 4 starts sitting well south of his season number, a form change the board hadn't fully caught up to.

Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
(12-6)·3.57 ERA
Aug 11 vs Phillies
ND
6.0IP
0ER
2K
3BB
97P
Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder
(4-8)·5.17 ERA
Aug 12 @ White Sox
L
5.1IP
2ER
4K
1BB
94P

None of that mattered much once the lineups took the field. St. Louis carried a hot week into the nightcap after wins of 11-4 and 8-4 over the Cubs, while Cincinnati arrived already down a game on the day and hunting for any kind of answer against a Cardinals pitching staff that's quietly been excellent.

St. Louis did its damage immediately, plating both runs in the first inning and never trailing. Cincinnati clawed one back in the fourth, but that was the extent of it — the Reds finished with 3 hits against 7 for the Cardinals, and St. Louis' bullpen made the finish stand up.

It's the kind of finish that's become a theme in Cincinnati. The Reds have dropped 3 straight, a stretch defined less by any single bad game than by an offense that keeps going quiet at the wrong times. St. Louis, meanwhile, has won 4 of its last 5, a run that started against Philadelphia and carried through a series against Chicago before landing on Cincinnati.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(64-61)
Aug 17W@ Reds2-1
Aug 16W@ Cubs11-4
Aug 15W@ Cubs8-4
Aug 14L@ Cubs0-3
Aug 12Wvs Phillies7-1
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(59-65)
Aug 17Lvs Cardinals1-2
Aug 16Lvs Marlins1-7
Aug 15Lvs Marlins4-8
Aug 14Wvs Marlins1-0
Aug 13W@ White Sox9-8

The injury report tells a lot of the story here too. Cincinnati is already without Greene for the rest of the year and is nursing Williamson, Blake Dunn and Graham Ashcraft back from their own long absences, while Spencer Steer only just had the splint taken off his wrist. St. Louis has its own absences in Ramon Urias and Max Rajcic, but neither was needed Monday — the Cardinals simply have more healthy difference-makers to lean on right now.

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
(2)
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias (elbows) has been sent to Triple-A Memphis to resume a rehab assignment, John Denton of Roundtable.io reports.08/04
  • 60-Day-ILMax Rajcic (RP) — Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction.07/23
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Steer (1B) — Steer (wrist) is scheduled to have a splint removed from his right wrist Monday, MLB.com reports.08/10
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Santillan (oblique) could be activated to the major-league roster later this week, Mike Petraglia of MLB.com reports.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) struck out two and allowed one earned run on five hits and no walks across 3.2 innings in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Louisville.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) will be out for 12-to-18 months after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.08/13
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — The Reds transferred Dunn (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Thursday.08/06
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/18

Both clubs are on the outside of the playoff picture with a season that's thinning by the day, but this one's worth filing away for a different reason: Lowder turned in another solid start even in a loss, and that trend line is worth watching the next time these two see each other.

Sources

MLBSt. Louis CardinalsCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiAndre PallanteRhett Lowder