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Predictions

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

By Bush StaffUpdated 47d ago·2 min read
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(54-33)
Arizona DiamondbacksARI(44-44)
3—2
FINAL
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MIL
000000300371
ARI
100000100270

Getaway day in the desert had a rookie righty and a first-time All-Star squaring off. Brandon Sproat took the ball for the Brewers looking to build on a June turnaround, while Eduardo Rodriguez brought a sub-2.10 ERA and a rebuilt reputation into a 1:10 PM MT first pitch.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Brewers(54-33)
LWLWW
3
Diamondbacks(44-44)
WLLWW
2
Best BetBrewers -124
Postgame

Cashed — Milwaukee won outright 3-2, exactly the value sharp money and the price implied.

Pregame

We took the Brewers on the moneyline at -119 and the win is banked outright — Milwaukee's deeper, healthier roster proved it can win a low-scoring grind even with Woodruff gone. Sharp money backed that same read pregame, piling onto Milwaukee across a noticeable share of tracked action. The price has since ticked to -114, but the read holds: Arizona's .500 record against good teams was the bigger tell than any single day's pitching matchup.

The bigger story on the Milwaukee side had nothing to do with Sproat. Brandon Woodruff exited his last start against this same Arizona club early and landed on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation just hours before this game, pushing Drew Rom into the rotation mix and adding one more name to an already crowded Brewers injury list. Arizona, meanwhile, is still nursing its own rotation, with Corbin Burnes' elbow rehab hitting a fresh snag and no clean timeline back.

Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Sproat
(3-4)·5.16 ERA
Jun 30 vs Reds
W
5.1IP
2ER
7K
2BB
106P
07/05 Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Eduardo Rodriguez
(8-3)·2.29 ERA
Jun 29 vs Giants
W
7.0IP
1ER
1K
0BB
91P
07/05 Lineup

None of that stopped either lineup from playing a tight one. This was the front end of a stretch where Milwaukee and Arizona had already split a doubleheader a day earlier, and the finale carried that same knife's-edge feel from first pitch to final out.

Arizona grabbed an early 1-0 lead in the first and made it stand up for six full innings, with both starters trading zeroes in between. The Brewers finally broke through with a 3-run 7th that put them ahead for good, and the D-backs answered with one of their own in the bottom half but couldn't complete the comeback. Both teams finished with 7 hits; Milwaukee's lone error was the only blemish on either side's ledger.

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — The Brewers placed Woodruff on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to right shoulder inflammation, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (back) will be activated from the IL to make his next start for the Brewers, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/05
  • 15-Day-ILJoel Kuhnel (RP) — The Brewers placed Kuhnel on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 3, due to a right shoulder injury.07/04
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/03
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate.07/02
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick had Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/05
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(10)
  • 10-Day-ILJames McCann (C) — McCann (quadriceps) will play Saturday and Sunday for Triple-A Reno and could then rejoin the Diamondbacks, MLB.com reports.07/04
  • 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Manager Torey Lovullo said June 20 that Lawlar will receive further imaging on his strained right hamstring during the All-Star break to gauge his healing, Steve Gilbert MLB.com reports.06/30
  • 15-Day-ILMichael Soroka (SP) — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) is expected to be re-evaluated during the first or second week of July, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson (SP) — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08

The win keeps the Brewers rolling at the top of the NL Central even as their pitching depth gets tested week to week — Sproat's development matters more than ever with Woodruff out and a bullpen already down several arms. For Arizona, this is exactly the kind of one-run loss to a good team that's defined their season at .500: competitive, close, and just short.

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(54-33)
Jul 5L@ Diamondbacks3-4
Jul 4W@ Diamondbacks7-4
Jul 2Lvs Reds2-7
Jul 2Wvs Reds4-2
Jun 30Wvs Reds7-2
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(44-44)
Jul 5Wvs Brewers4-3
Jul 4Lvs Brewers4-7
Jul 2Lvs Giants4-6
Jul 1Wvs Giants8-2
Jun 30Wvs Giants5-4

Rodriguez's final line adds to a season that's already netted him his first All-Star nod, and a hard-luck loss here doesn't change that trajectory. The bigger question in Phoenix is whether the roster around him — banged up at catcher, at shortstop, and now waiting on Burnes — can turn these near-misses into wins before the trade deadline arrives.

Sources

MLBMilwaukee BrewersArizona DiamondbacksPolymarketKalshiBrandon SproatEduardo Rodriguez