Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
MIL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	12	0
ARI	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	—	4	4	0

Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 2.59 ERA) gets the ball for Milwaukee, and he's been nails his last time out — 5.2 shutout innings against the Cubs with 6 strikeouts on just 84 pitches. Merrill Kelly (5-8, 5.84) counters for Arizona off a rough Tampa Bay start where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. It's not a fair fight on paper, and Kelly knows it.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Brewers(54-32)

WLWWW

3

-1.5+106-150o9.5+111

Diamondbacks(43-44)

LLWWL

4

+1.5-108+147u9.5-113

Best BetBrewers -154

Pregame

Milwaukee's priced as a clear favorite here and the market's not wrong to lean that way — Woodruff's been the better pitcher by a wide margin and this roster simply doesn't lose series very often right now. Arizona's price reflects real uncertainty in that rotation behind Kelly. Backing the Brewers to win outright is the safer side of this ledger even at a shorter price.

Kelly's had a season to forget, and the losses keep piling up in bunches. Arizona's lineup will need to manufacture offense against one of the better arms in the league, and that puts even more pressure on a Diamondbacks bullpen that's already been without Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk and Andrew Saalfrank for months. Milwaukee's pen has its own holes — five relievers or starters on the IL — but Woodruff going deep would paper over that for a night.

Brandon Woodruff

(2-2)·2.98 ERA

Jun 28 vs Cubs

ND

5.2IP

0ER

6K

2BB

84P

07/04 Lineup

Merrill Kelly

(7-8)·5.20 ERA

Jun 28 @ Rays

L

6.0IP

5ER

3K

2BB

93P

07/04 Lineup

None of this is happening in a vacuum for Arizona. GM Mike Hazen has said the club plans to buy at the deadline, sitting just a couple games out of a Wild Card spot, and Torey Lovullo has echoed that optimism publicly. A get-right game against a division leader isn't the easiest way to make that case, but a signature win over the best record in baseball would go a long way toward validating the buyer talk.

Milwaukee Brewers

(54-32)

Jul 4W@ Diamondbacks7-4

Jul 2Lvs Reds2-7

Jul 2Wvs Reds4-2

Jun 30Wvs Reds7-2

Jun 29Wvs Reds5-3

Arizona Diamondbacks

(43-44)

Jul 4Lvs Brewers4-7

Jul 2Lvs Giants4-6

Jul 1Wvs Giants8-2

Jun 30Wvs Giants5-4

Jun 28L@ Rays1-5

Milwaukee's been the story of the National League for over a month now, and Saturday's series-opening win over Arizona was just the latest example — the Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 and haven't shown any signs of cooling off. The lone hiccup was a 2-7 loss to the Reds, otherwise it's been business as usual atop the Central. Arizona, meanwhile, has split its last 5 and is chasing consistency more than anything, with Saturday's loss to Milwaukee the latest reminder of how thin the margin for error is at 43-44.

Milwaukee Brewers

(9)

• 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/23
• 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.07/03
• 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP) — Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate.07/02
• 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (back) will make his next minor-league rehab start Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
• 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP) — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
• 15-Day-ILColeman Crow (SP) — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.06/30
• 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/18
• 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
• 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

Arizona Diamondbacks

(10)

• 10-Day-ILJames McCann (C) — McCann (quadriceps) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, MLB.com reports.07/02
• 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Manager Torey Lovullo said June 20 that Lawlar will receive further imaging on his strained right hamstring during the All-Star break to gauge his healing, Steve Gilbert MLB.com reports.06/30
• 15-Day-ILMichael Soroka (SP) — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.06/27
• 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) is expected to be re-evaluated during the first or second week of July, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.06/29
• 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson (SP) — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.06/25
• 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.06/19
• 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
• 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01
• 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
• 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08

Both rosters are banged up, but Milwaukee's depth has let it absorb the hits better. Quinn Priester needing thoracic outlet surgery and Angel Zerpa still working back from an elbow issue would be brutal blows for a lesser team, yet the Brewers keep winning anyway. Arizona doesn't have that luxury with Corbin Burnes, Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka all shelved from the rotation — which is exactly why Kelly's struggles carry so much weight. On a holiday night at Chase Field, the pressure sits squarely on the home team to prove it belongs in the buyer conversation.