The pitching matchup is the whole story. Pallante has rebuilt his stock in a hurry — 3.73 ERA over 6 starts, coming off 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Pirates with 6 punchouts. Sproat is the opposite arrow: a 6.75 ERA in 26.2 innings and back-to-back rough ones against the Tigers and Diamondbacks, including 4 earned in 4.1 against Arizona. The stuff is loud, the results haven't been, and this is his first career look at St. Louis.
Milwaukee's rotation health is the bigger context. Brandon Woodruff is shelved, Quinn Priester just got pulled off his rehab with shoulder soreness, and Jacob Misiorowski is day-to-day with a hamstring but trending toward making his start. Christian Yelich is still on the 10-day with the groin. That's a lot of weight on guys like Sproat to give Pat Murphy length.
- Day-To-DayGarrett Mitchell (CF) — Mitchell was scratched from the lineup for Wednesday's game in St. Louis due to illness.05/06
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito (RP) — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.04/21
- Day-To-DayJ.B. Bukauskas (RP) — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.03/01
- 10-Day-ILChristian Yelich (LF) — Yelich (groin) is expected to progress to facing live pitching and running the bases early next week, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.05/05
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff is tentatively slated to resume throwing Saturday after undergoing a minor procedure Tuesday to drain fluid from his inflamed right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.05/06
- 15-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.05/05
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester (wrist) is with the Brewers in St. Louis after being pulled from his rehab assignment due to shoulder soreness, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.05/04
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig (RP) — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.04/28
- 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.04/14
- 60-Day-ILAkil Baddoo (LF) — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.03/24
- Day-To-DayNathan Church (LF) — The Cardinals announced that Church was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers due to a left leg contusion, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.05/06
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton (RP) — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.04/11
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson (SP) — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.03/27
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos (RP) — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.03/22
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse (SP) — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.03/22
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson (RP) — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.03/22
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias (3B) — Urias went 3-for-4 with a home run, three RBI and two runs scored in Monday's loss to the Nationals.05/05
- 15-Day-ILMatt Pushard (RP) — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/03
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar (LF) — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.05/03
The market doesn't see a clear edge. Pinnacle has the Cardinals shaded at -107 with the Brewers at -101 — basically a coin flip dressed up as a moneyline. The total sits at 8 with the over slightly favored at the books, and the EV column on every side is negative, which is sportsbook-speak for "there's no free money here, please bet responsibly."
If Sproat can repeat the early-game velocity he flashed against Arizona — he punched out the first 4 hitters before the wheels came off — Milwaukee can hang. If not, Walker and Burleson are going to make this short and ugly. Pallante going 6 strong is the cleanest path to a Cardinals cover, and frankly that's been his routine.