The form lines tell two very different stories. Atlanta is 37-19 and Boston is 23-31, but the Braves have dropped 3 of 5 and the Sox just hung a shutout on them less than 24 hours ago. Momentum in a series game is mostly noise, but if you're looking for a reason to fade the favorite, "they just got no-hit on the scoreboard last night" is at least an honest one.
The injury list is where this gets ugly for both sides. Atlanta is without Sean Murphy (finger, 8+ weeks), Drake Baldwin (oblique), Kyle Farmer, and Jurickson Profar for the full season on a PED suspension — that's the entire catcher room and a corner-outfield bat gone. Boston is missing Trevor Story (sports hernia, 6-10 weeks), Roman Anthony, Triston Casas, and rotation pieces in Garrett Crochet, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Johan Oviedo. Tolle is in this rotation because half the staff isn't.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter (RP) — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin (C) — Baldwin (oblique) doesn't yet have a timeline for his return, MLB.com reports.05/26
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer (DH) — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.05/18
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/12
- suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.05/26
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/22
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
- 60-Day-ILDanny Young (RP) — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayGarrett Whitlock (RP) — The Red Sox reinstated Whitlock (personal) from the paternity leave list Monday.05/27
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris (RP) — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — Anthony (finger) took 12-to-15 dry swings without any discomfort Tuesday, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.05/26
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.05/22
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Crochet (shoulder) said that he's scheduled to throw a second live batting practice session Sunday, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.05/27
- OutBrendan Rodgers (2B) — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/27
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval (SP) — Sandoval (biceps/elbow) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/27
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez (1B) — Gonzalez (shoulder) has started hitting flips, MLB.com reports.05/24
- 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — no05/22
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.05/08
The market reads it the way you'd expect: Pinnacle has the Braves -139 on the moneyline, Red Sox +126, and the under -135 at 7.5. Two aces, two short-handed lineups, getaway-day matinee — there's a clean case for the under even with the books split on the number. If you trust the Sale-of-May more than the line does, the -1.5 at +125 is the bet that's been getting the sharp handle.