Barstool Bush
Predictions

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles

By Bush StaffUpdated 29d ago·2 min read
Atlanta BravesATL(60-42)
Baltimore OriolesBAL(50-53)
2—3
FINAL
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ATL
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BAL
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Bryce Elder (6-6, 4.06) gets the ball for Atlanta looking to build on a season that's turned him from afterthought into a real weapon in this rotation, and he draws Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.28), who's quietly been one of the better arms in baseball since June. First pitch at Camden Yards is 7:05 PM ET.

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FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Braves(60-42)
WWLWW
2
Orioles(50-53)
WLPLW
3
Best BetBraves -106
Pregame

Atlanta's the pick here off pure form: 4 wins in 5 games, a rotation that's found its footing, and Acuna possibly rejoining a lineup that's been dramatically better with him in it all year. Baltimore's dealing with catcher depth issues at the worst possible time, which makes backing the road favorite an easy lean even without a marquee pitching mismatch.

Rogers is the story on the Baltimore side of this one. After a brutal stretch in April and May that saw his ERA balloon into double digits over seven starts, he's rounded into form with a sub-2.00 ERA over his last several outings, including 6.1 innings of one-run ball with 8 strikeouts and zero walks his last time out against Houston. That's a real bounce-back for a guy who was the Opening Day starter.

Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder
(8-6)·3.69 ERA
Jul 20 vs Padres
W
6.0IP
2ER
4K
1BB
77P
07/25 Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Young
(8-3)·3.43 ERA
Jul 19 @ Astros
W
7.0IP
1ER
7K
1BB
95P
07/25 Lineup

The bigger issue for Baltimore isn't the rotation, it's the lineup behind it. Both projected catchers, Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo, are out with wrist and shoulder issues respectively, which is a brutal spot for a team already fighting to stay above .500 in a stacked AL East.

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(60-42)
Jul 23Wvs Padres6-5
Jul 22Wvs Padres7-6
Jul 21Lvs Padres3-8
Jul 20Wvs Padres3-2
Jul 19Wvs Rangers8-5
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(50-53)
Jul 22W@ Red Sox5-1
Jul 22L@ Red Sox3-6
Jul 21P@ Red Sox0-0
Jul 20L@ Red Sox5-6
Jul 19W@ Astros5-2

Atlanta, meanwhile, is rolling. The Braves have won 4 of their last 5, took 3 of 4 from San Diego, and have the look of a team that finally has its pitching depth stabilizing even with Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver all still sidelined. Elder's turned himself into a legitimate mid-rotation piece after two rough years bouncing between Atlanta and Triple-A, and he's given the Braves length and consistency all season.

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(10)
  • 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Thursday that he expects Acuna (hamstring) to be activated from the 10-day injured list before the end of this weekend, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.07/23
  • 10-Day-ILHa-Seong Kim (SS) — Atlanta announced Monday that Kim (finger) will begin a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.07/13
  • 15-Day-ILRobert Suarez (RP) — Suarez (elbow) played catch on the field at Truist Park on Friday, Harrison Smajovits of SI.com reports.07/17
  • suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Murphy (finger) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett on Friday, Harrison Smajovits of SI.com reports.07/23
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) has been cleared to throw bullpen sessions, MLB.com reports.07/21
  • 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Smith-Shawver (elbow) allowed four hits and one walk while striking out five across 4.1 scoreless innings during his rehab start Saturday with Triple-A Gwinnett.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Strider (SP) — Strider (elbow) will have a follow-up appointment with Dr. Keith Meister next week and may also be scheduled for an MRI, Chad Bishop of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
  • 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
(10)
  • 10-Day-ILSamuel Basallo (C) — The Orioles placed Basallo on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with right shoulder inflammation.07/22
  • 10-Day-ILAdley Rutschman (C) — Rutschman is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox due to a left wrist injury, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILBlaze Alexander (3B) — Alexander (hand) does not have a timeline to return from the 10-day injured list, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Helsley (RP) — Baltimore transferred Helsley (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILChris Bassitt (SP) — The Orioles transferred Bassitt (back) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILKeegan Akin (RP) — Akin (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.07/15
  • 60-Day-ILFelix Bautista (RP) — Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said Saturday that Bautista (shoulder) has been "throwing really, really well" in his bullpen sessions, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILColin Selby (RP) — Selby plans to receive a second opinion on his right shoulder before continuing his rehab program, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Mountcastle (1B) — Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.06/13
  • 60-Day-ILJordan Westburg (3B) — Westburg (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Andrew Golden of TheBanner.com reports.05/15

The number that matters most for this series doesn't involve either starter. Atlanta is 37-16 when Ronald Acuna Jr. is in the lineup and 23-26 without him, and Walt Weiss said this week he expects the reigning face of the franchise activated before this weekend wraps in Baltimore. If Acuna's in the lineup for this one, the Braves' offense looks a whole lot scarier than the numbers on the page suggest.

Orioles fans have reason for optimism in Rogers, but this feels like a team still searching for its footing with the injury list piling up at the worst positions. Atlanta's got the healthier roster, the better recent form, and a potential superstar walking back through the door at the right time.

Sources

MLBAtlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesPolymarketKalshiBryce ElderBrandon Young