Barstool Bush
Predictions

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

By Bush StaffUpdated 71d ago·2 min read
Atlanta BravesATL(45-23)
New York MetsNYM(30-38)
5—7
FINAL
123456789RHE
ATL
020010020590
NYM
24010000—781

Spencer Strider (4-1, 4.00) gets the ball for Atlanta opposite Nolan McLean (3-4, 3.98) in the opener at Citi Field. Strider's last time out was a 5-inning, 3-ER win over Pittsburgh on 84 pitches — not vintage, but a W is a W. McLean grabbed a no-decision in San Diego after a 6-inning, 1-ER outing where he walked 3 and needed 101 pitches to get there.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Braves(45-23)
PLLWW
5
Mets(30-38)
WLLWL
7
Best BetBraves -107
Pregame

Pinnacle has this priced as a near pick'em, and that feels generous to a Mets team missing Lindor, Polanco, Taylor and Senga. Strider is the better arm against a depleted lineup, and Atlanta is one of the best teams in the sport. Getting the Braves at a plus number is value.

The Mets are a mess right now. They got outscored 16-2 in back-to-back home losses to the Cardinals before salvaging Wednesday's finale 5-4, and they're doing it without Francisco Lindor (calf), Jorge Polanco (ankle), Tyrone Taylor (hip), and Kodai Senga (spine/arm). That is a lineup card with a lot of empty space and a rotation patched together with duct tape — not the spot you want to be in when Strider walks through the door.

Atlanta Braves
Spencer Strider
(4-2)·5.31 ERA
Jun 6 vs Pirates
W
5.0IP
3ER
3K
2BB
84P
06/12 Lineup
New York Mets
Nolan McLean
(4-5)·4.03 ERA
Jun 6 @ Padres
ND
6.0IP
1ER
5K
3BB
101P
06/12 Lineup
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(13)
  • Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter (RP) — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Manager Walt Weiss said after Tuesday's game against the White Sox that Acuna is day-to-day with left hamstring tightness, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.06/10
  • 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin (C) — Baldwin (oblique) is slated to take live batting practice Thursday and Friday and could be cleared to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Gwinnett over the weekend, 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.06/10
  • 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer (DH) — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.05/18
  • 15-Day-ILTyler Kinley (RP) — Kinley (4-2) picked up the win over the Nationals on Friday, striking out two in a perfect 11th inning.06/10
  • suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep (SP) — Waldrep (elbow) had his rehab assignment transferred to Double-A Columbus, where he will make his next start Thursday, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.05/26
  • 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/22
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
  • 60-Day-ILDanny Young (RP) — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
New York Mets
New York Mets
(19)
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Waddell (RP) — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.06/01
  • Day-To-DayAdbert Alzolay (RP) — The Mets reassigned Alzolay to minor-league camp Tuesday.06/01
  • Day-To-DayMike Tauchman (RF) — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.05/18
  • Day-To-DayGrae Kessinger (3B) — no05/13
  • Day-To-DayJoe Jacques (RP) — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayKevin Herget (RP) — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJose Rojas (3B) — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco (1B) — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILFrancisco Lindor (SS) — Lindor (calf) will go through full baseball activities this week during the Mets' homestand, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.06/09
  • 10-Day-ILTyrone Taylor (CF) — Taylor (hip) began running this past week but has yet to resume full baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.06/08
  • 10-Day-ILRonny Mauricio (SS) — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILKodai Senga (SP) — Senga (spine/arm) allowed one run on one hit and a walk while striking out five batters over six innings in Thursday's rehab start with Double-A Binghamton, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/12
  • OutRobert Stock (RP) — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP) — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08

Atlanta isn't exactly at full strength either. Ronald Acuna Jr. is on the 10-day IL with hamstring tightness, Sean Murphy is still in a splint with a fractured finger, and Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver are both 60-day IL arms working their way back. They've also just dropped 2 of 3 in Chicago to the White Sox, with the most recent game suspended at 0-0 — so the bats have gone quiet for a beat.

Even with all that, the gap between these teams is real. Atlanta is 22 games over .500. The Mets are 8 under and bleeding regulars. Walt Weiss has the better starter, the deeper lineup, and the bullpen that doesn't currently feature 6 names on the 60-day IL list.

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
(45-23)
Jun 11P@ White Sox0-0
Jun 10L@ White Sox1-2
Jun 9L@ White Sox5-6
Jun 7Wvs Pirates3-2
Jun 6Wvs Pirates6-3
New York Mets
New York Mets
(30-38)
Jun 11Wvs Cardinals5-4
Jun 10Lvs Cardinals2-9
Jun 9Lvs Cardinals0-7
Jun 7W@ Padres7-3
Jun 7L@ Padres2-3

The market sees a coin flip — Mets -108, Braves -102 — which is mostly Citi Field giving New York the home tax. McLean has been wobbly since a strong April (per Rising Apple, his May ERA ballooned over 6 before recent stabilization), and a depleted lineup behind him doesn't help. If Strider has anything close to his good slider, this is a Braves game.

Sources

MLBAtlanta BravesNew York MetsPolymarketKalshiSpencer StriderNolan McLean