On the other side is JR Ritchie, who's 4 starts into his big-league career after getting called up in late April with a 0.38 Triple-A ERA. The Cubs got to him last time out — he didn't finish 5 innings for the first time as a big leaguer — and the walk rate (15 BB in 21.2 IP per Bleacher Nation) is the obvious red flag against a Marlins lineup that will take its pitches.
Atlanta is still doing this without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring, 10-day IL until he can play the outfield) and without Sean Murphy, who's looking at 8 weeks minimum with a finger injury. Jurickson Profar is gone for the whole year on the PED suspension. The rotation is also a MASH unit — Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, and Waldrep are all on the shelf — which is part of why Ritchie is getting these starts in the first place.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter (RP) — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- 7-Day ILEli White (CF) — White (concussion) is on track to be activated from the 7-day injured list Monday, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.05/17
- 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Acuna (hamstring) likely won't be activated from the 10-day injured list until he can play the outfield, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.05/15
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILHurston Waldrep (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILDylan Dodd (RP) — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.05/08
- suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) received a positive update when evaluated last week and is expected to start a throwing program soon, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.05/12
- 60-Day-ILDanny Young (RP) — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine (LF) — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP) — Snelling will have his left elbow evaluated further by the medical staff next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.05/15
- OutJesus Tinoco (RP) — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP) — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP) — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Miami's own pitching depth took a hit with Robby Snelling getting his elbow re-evaluated and Adam Mazur on the 60-day, but the lineup is mostly intact aside from Griffin Conine, who's headed for hamstring tendon surgery. The Marlins have been a .500-ish team in their last 5 and have played Atlanta tight all season, which is why this number is what it is.
The path for Atlanta is simple: get to Meyer early before he settles in, because once he's got the slider working he's been borderline unhittable. The path for Miami is to keep running counts on Ritchie and let the bullpen game break open the middle innings. Under 8.5 is the play that lines up with both starters' profiles, but a Braves lineup that put up 8 on Boston Sunday can change that math in a hurry.