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Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

By Bush StaffUpdated 2d ago·2 min read
Toronto Blue JaysTOR(62-66)
Tampa Bay RaysTB(76-50)
6—7
FINAL
123456789RHE
TOR
000141000690
TB
20050000—781

Drew Rasmussen took the ball for the Rays looking like the more trustworthy arm on paper, and Max Scherzer took his for Toronto trying to prove Wednesday wasn't going to be another short outing in a season full of them. One pitcher came in at 13-5 with a 3.01 ERA off a win against the Athletics. The other was 1-6 at 7.40 after a loss to the Red Sox his last time out.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Blue Jays(62-66)
LWLWW
6
Rays(76-50)
WLWLL
7
Best BetRays -194
Postgame

Tampa Bay won 7-6, so the pick cashes, but it wasn't the comfortable outcome the arm advantage implied. Toronto's 4-run 5th made this a nail-biter, and the bear case about the lineup striking fast proved exactly right — the Rays just had enough of a head start to survive it.

Pregame

Rasmussen's the best pitcher on the field by a wide margin right now, and Guerrero's absence takes a real bite out of Toronto's lineup for all three games in this series. The Rays are priced as clear favorites and the arm advantage backs that up.

Toronto walked into Tropicana Field already thin. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains out with a concussion as he works toward a targeted Saturday return, and Ernie Clement was out of the lineup Wednesday as well. That's a middle-of-the-order dent for a Blue Jays team that had just hung 10 runs on this same Rays pitching staff a night earlier, so there was reason to think the bats could still show up even shorthanded.

Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
(1-6)·7.40 ERA
Aug 13 vs Red Sox
L
5.0IP
1ER
4K
2BB
92P
08/19 Lineup
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
(13-5)·3.01 ERA
Aug 12 @ Athletics
W
5.0IP
2ER
3K
1BB
84P
08/19 Lineup

They did, eventually. Tampa Bay jumped out with 2 runs in the first and blew the game open with a 5-run 4th, but Toronto answered with a run in the 4th, 4 more in the 5th, and 1 in the 6th to pull within a run. It wasn't enough. The Rays hung on, 7-6.

Tampa Bay finished with 8 hits and an error, Toronto with 9 hits and a clean glove behind Scherzer, and neither bullpen made it out of this one unscathed.

The final score papers over how ragged the middle innings got. A 5-run frame from the Rays and a 4-run answer from the Blue Jays a inning later means both starters left this one with plenty to clean up, no matter what the box score says about the decision.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(62-66)
Aug 19L@ Rays6-7
Aug 18W@ Rays10-5
Aug 16Lvs Yankees3-4
Aug 15Wvs Yankees4-1
Aug 14Wvs Yankees3-1
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(76-50)
Aug 19Wvs Blue Jays7-6
Aug 18Lvs Blue Jays5-10
Aug 17Wvs Orioles7-6
Aug 16Lvs Orioles2-10
Aug 15Lvs Orioles3-4

The two clubs split their two-game window heading into this one, and Wednesday's result evens it back up at a game apiece. Toronto is now on a run of 3 wins in 5 games with the loss attached to the end of it, while Tampa Bay's win snapped a stretch that had them at 2-3 over their last 5, including a blowout loss to Baltimore in that stretch.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(17)
  • Day-To-DayBrett Bateman (CF) — Bateman is absent from the lineup for Thursday's game against the Red Sox.08/20
  • Day-To-DayErnie Clement (2B) — Clement is absent from the lineup for Wednesday's game versus the Rays.08/19
  • 7-Day ILVladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) — Guerrero (concussion) will go through a full workout Wednesday and is targeting a return to the Blue Jays' active roster Saturday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet reports.08/19
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Urias (2B) — The Blue Jays announced Monday that Urias (quadriceps) will be shut down for the next two weeks, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.08/10
  • 10-Day-ILJonatan Clase (LF) — Clase (foot) isn't in the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Rays.07/22
  • 15-Day-ILSpencer Arrighetti (SP) — Arrighetti (foot) could be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Friday's game against the Yankees, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.08/19
  • 15-Day-ILTrey Yesavage (SP) — Yesavage (knee) resumed throwing from flat ground Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.08/18
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Taillon (forearm) resumed a throwing program with some flat-ground work Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.08/18
  • 60-Day-ILJake Bloss (SP) — The Blue Jays recalled Bloss from Triple-A Buffalo on Wednesday and placed him on the 60-day injured list while he recovers from a right teres major strain, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.08/12
  • 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Garcia (elbow/neck/biceps) has been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and is expected to miss the remainder of the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.08/07
  • 60-Day-ILPatrick Corbin (SP) — Toronto transferred Corbin (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.08/05
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — Mantiply (knee) has resumed throwing bullpen sessions, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.07/27
  • 60-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Barger is expected to be sidelined six months following surgery Monday to repair his right elbow UCL, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.07/27
  • 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Santander is still dealing with discomfort in his surgically repaired left shoulder and recently received another cortisone shot, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILBen Williamson (2B) — The Rays placed Williamson on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right hamstring strain.08/07
  • 15-Day-ILGriffin Jax (SP) — Manager Kevin Cash said Jax (elbow) is expected to make a rehab start for Triple-A Durham on Sunday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.08/18
  • 15-Day-ILCole Sulser (RP) — Sulser (back) faced hitters Friday, per MLB.com.08/15
  • 60-Day-ILManuel Rodriguez (RP) — Rodriguez (elbow) has a 6.14 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 13:3 K:BB over 7.1 innings during his minor-league rehab assignment.08/17
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Uceta (RP) — Uceta (shoulder) is playing catch from 75 feet, per MLB.com.08/15
  • 60-Day-ILJake Fraley (RF) — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Fraley (hernia) is scheduled to play a few games at the team's complex in Florida before beginning a rehab assignment at Triple-A Durham, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.08/14
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Lux (LF) — Lux (shoulder) is unlikely to return this season, per MLB.com.08/11
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan Heasley (RP) — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Pepiot (SP) — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08

Toronto's pitching staff is still waiting on reinforcements, with Trey Yesavage and Jameson Taillon both doing flat-ground work as they build back, and Spencer Arrighetti eyeing an activation this week. Tampa Bay has its own list to manage in relief, with Griffin Jax, Cole Sulser, Manuel Rodriguez and Edwin Uceta all currently unavailable. Neither bullpen picture is getting easier before the next meeting between these two.

Sources

MLBToronto Blue JaysTampa Bay RaysPolymarketKalshiMax ScherzerDrew Rasmussen