Barstool Bush
Predictions

Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks

By Bush StaffUpdated 32d ago·2 min read
AthleticsATH(43-57)
Arizona DiamondbacksARI(51-49)
5—6
FINAL
12345678910RHE
ATH
0010000121590
ARI
3000001002690

Jack Perkins (2-5, 6.87 ERA) takes the ball for Oakland looking to atone for a disastrous last outing, while Arizona counters with Kohl Drake, a 22-year-old lefty who came over from Texas in the Merrill Kelly deal and still hasn't recorded a big league decision. First pitch is 6:40 PM MT.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Athletics(43-57)
WLWLL
5
Diamondbacks(51-49)
LWWLW
6
Best BetDiamondbacks -140
Pregame

The price on Oakland here is way out of line with what these two teams actually are — a sub-.500 club getting bet like a near-lock over a team that's 51-49. Arizona's rotation is banged up and Carroll's out, but the roster gap still favors the Diamondbacks enough to make the home side the value play at this price. It's a bet on quality holding up over one hot week from Oakland.

Drake's been up with the big club since late June, but this is uncharted territory for him regardless — no MLB starts on the ledger yet, just a 0.00 ERA and a whole lot of unknown. Arizona's rotation has been in triage mode for weeks with Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes and Ryne Nelson all shelved, so however Drake looks tonight matters more than a typical spot start.

Athletics
Jack Perkins
(2-7)·6.72 ERA
Jul 3 vs Marlins
L
3.2IP
7ER
8K
4BB
91P
07/21 Lineup
Arizona Diamondbacks
Kohl Drake
(0-0)·4.85 ERA
07/21 Lineup

Corbin Carroll is out of the lineup again after hyperextending his elbow over the weekend, which strips a real chunk of thump from Arizona's order. That's a lineup dealing with absences up and down the card, and it's part of why the number on this game looks the way it does — Oakland's price is short given the Diamondbacks' overall record, but this roster isn't the one that got them to 51-49.

Oakland's last week and a half has been a full mood ring. They got run off the field 4-23 by Washington, turned around and dropped 15 on the Nationals the very next day, then beat this same Diamondbacks team 5-2 on Monday. That's not a club playing consistent baseball — it's a club capable of both ends of the spectrum in back-to-back games, and Perkins landing on the wrong side of that variance is a real possibility given how his last start went.

Athletics
Athletics
(43-57)
Jul 21W@ Diamondbacks5-2
Jul 19Lvs Nationals2-5
Jul 19Wvs Nationals15-1
Jul 18Lvs Nationals4-23
Jul 12L@ White Sox1-9
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(51-49)
Jul 21Lvs Athletics2-5
Jul 19Wvs Cardinals8-7
Jul 18Wvs Cardinals5-3
Jul 18Lvs Cardinals4-5
Jul 12W@ Dodgers5-3

Perkins' last time out was ugly across the board — 3.2 innings, 7 earned runs, 4 walks against Miami — and Oakland doesn't have the luxury of covering for a short start with this bullpen banged up. Arizona's lineup, even missing Carroll, has enough thump to make him pay if he's laboring early.

Athletics
Athletics
(10)
  • Day-To-DayColby Thomas (RF) — Thomas has been diagnosed with a bruised left wrist, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.07/21
  • Day-To-DayJoshua Kuroda-Grauer (3B) — Kuroda-Grauer has been diagnosed with a testicular contusion, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.07/21
  • 10-Day-ILNick Kurtz (1B) — Kurtz (thumb), who was cleared to begin a hitting progression and fielded grounders Monday, could return from the injured list as early as this weekend against the Twins, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.07/21
  • 10-Day-ILZack Gelof (3B) — Gelof will begin baseball activities once the stitches on his right knee are removed Tuesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 15-Day-ILJustin Sterner (RP) — Sterner earned his first save of the season in Wednesday's extra-inning win over the Cubs. He tossed a perfect inning while striking out one.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILLuis Severino (SP) — Severino's (shoulder) recent MRI showed signs of healing, but manager Mark Kotsay indicated Saturday that the right-hander is several weeks away from a potential return to the rotation, Jason Burke of Roundtable.io reports.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILDenzel Clarke (CF) — Manager Mark Kotsay said Saturday that Clarke (hamstring) is nearing a rehab assignment, Jason Burke of Roundtable.io reports.07/19
  • 60-Day-ILBrent Rooker (DH) — Rooker will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a cartilage tear in his left knee, Jason Burke of Roundtable.io reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILBrooks Kriske (RP) — Kriske (shoulder) began a throwing progression Thursday, MLB.com reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund (SP) — Hoglund (knee/back) will be sidelined for the rest of the 2026 season after undergoing surgery on his left hip Monday.05/20
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
(13)
  • Day-To-DayCorbin Carroll (RF) — Carroll (elbow) is not in the lineup for Monday's game against the Athletics, Jody Jackson of Bally Sports Arizona reports.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Gurriel isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against St. Louis.07/18
  • 10-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that Lawlar (hamstring) has been cleared for all baseball activities other than full-speed running, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.07/18
  • 10-Day-ILTommy Troy (LF) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Troy (shoulder) is expected to remain out for roughly 3-to-4 weeks, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILMichael Soroka (SP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Soroka (glute) is in line to return from the injured list sometime around early August, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILZac Gallen (SP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Thursday that Gallen is awaiting a second opinion on his injured right elbow, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) threw pitches to rehabbing outfielder Jordan Lawlar (hamstring) in a live batting practice session Saturday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.07/20
  • 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that MRI results on Puk's left shoulder revealed that his shoulder capsule hasn't fully healed, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILRyne Nelson (SP) — Nelson (elbow) will begin a throwing program Saturday or Sunday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) has begun a throwing program, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) began a throwing program July 10 and felt good following the session, MLB.com reports.07/13
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.06/01

Neither team is exactly playing with a full deck right now, which makes this one harder to project than the records suggest. Arizona still has the better roster on paper and the deeper track record this year, but a rookie making his first career start against a team that just smoked them 5-2 is not a situation to feel great about circling as a lock.

Sources

MLBAthleticsArizona DiamondbacksPolymarketKalshiJack PerkinsKohl Drake