Barstool Bush
Predictions

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

By Bush StaffUpdated 55d ago·2 min read
Houston AstrosHOU(41-44)
Detroit TigersDET(35-48)
7—5
FINAL
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HOU
0000002104771
DET
0200100002591

Hunter Brown (1-0, 1.40 ERA) faces Jack Flaherty (1-8, 5.35 ERA) at 1:40 PM ET in Detroit to close out a 4-game set that the Astros already lead 2-1. Brown has been elite since returning from a shoulder strain that wiped out his April and most of May — his ERA in 4 starts back tells you everything. Flaherty is the other side of that coin: making his first big-league appearance since June 12, when a left ankle tendon strain ended his night after 3 innings in Cleveland.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Astros(41-44)
WLWWW
7
Tigers(35-48)
LWLLL
5
Best BetAstros -131
Pregame

Brown at 1.40 ERA versus Flaherty at 5.35 and still finding his footing after a two-plus week absence is a clean edge. Houston has the hotter offense, the better arm, and a 3-1 series result in mind. The Astros as mild favorites are priced correctly, if not a touch light given how this week has gone.

Flaherty did earn his way back. His rehab start for Double-A Erie on June 25 covered 5.2 innings, 7 strikeouts, and 83 pitches, and Hinch called the outing 'very well.' That's enough to get activated. The open question is how many innings Detroit can actually squeeze out of him, and whether Brown is operating under a similar pitch ceiling — his June 22 start in Toronto ended at 3 innings on 85 pitches as the Astros manage his workload back from injury.

Houston Astros
Hunter Brown
(1-0)·3.57 ERA
Jun 22 @ Blue Jays
ND
3.0IP
1ER
4K
2BB
85P
06/28 Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Jack Flaherty
(3-8)·4.48 ERA
Jun 12 @ Guardians
L
3.0IP
2ER
1K
1BB
63P
06/28 Lineup
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(41-44)
Jun 27W@ Tigers8-6
Jun 26L@ Tigers0-8
Jun 25W@ Tigers2-1
Jun 24W@ Blue Jays3-1
Jun 23W@ Blue Jays9-7
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
(35-48)
Jun 27Lvs Astros6-8
Jun 26Wvs Astros8-0
Jun 25Lvs Astros1-2
Jun 24Lvs Yankees2-4
Jun 23Lvs Yankees3-4

Saturday was the perfect distillation of this series. Detroit built a 6-4 lead, Hinch had 999 wins in his pocket, and the Astros shredded both in the 8th inning. Jeremy Peña's RBI single tied it off Will Vest, and then Isaac Paredes — a former Tiger who clearly hasn't forgotten where the park is — dropped a 2-run double to make it 8-6 for good. Josh Hader closed it out. Houston has won 3 of 4 in this series and 4 of their last 5 overall; at 41-44 they aren't world-beaters, but they've been the better team every time they've been in Detroit this week.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(11)
  • Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILNick Allen (SS) — Allen (hamstring) resumed taking batting practice and shagging flyballs over the weekend, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 10-Day-ILLaMonte Wade Jr. (1B) — Wade (hamstring) has resumed taking batting practice and shagging flyballs and is expected to head out on a minor-league rehab assignment soon, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 10-Day-ILBraden Shewmake (SS) — The Astros announced Monday that Shewmake (adductor) has taken part in baseball activity and is working his way through a running progression at the team's facility in Florida, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/21
  • 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — The Astros announced Friday that Sousa (elbow) has begun a throwing progression, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — Javier (shoulder) struck out five and allowed three earned runs on five hits and three walks across 4.2 innings Sunday in his rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — Blanco (elbow) struck out five over three scoreless frames in his first rehab start with the Astros' Florida Complex League affiliate Friday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/02
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/29
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
(13)
  • Day-To-DayJosue Briceno (C) — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILGleyber Torres (2B) — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.06/19
  • 15-Day-ILJack Flaherty (SP) — Flaherty (ankle) is expected to return from the 15-day injured list to start Sunday against the Astros, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.06/24
  • 60-Day-ILJackson Jobe (SP) — Jobe (elbow) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.06/26
  • 60-Day-ILWenceel Perez (RF) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Perez won't require surgery for the left orbital fracture he sustained June 16, but the outfielder lacks a clear timeline for a return, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports. "It's not, from what I understand, where it's going to be something long term," Hinch said of Perez's injury. "But it doesn't mean it heals itself fast. He's feeling better and better and reporting progress."06/26
  • 60-Day-ILParker Meadows (CF) — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILBurch Smith (RP) — The Tigers transferred Smith (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.06/23
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander (SP) — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILJavier Baez (SS) — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILTrey Sweeney (SS) — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBrant Hurter (RP) — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.05/29
  • 60-Day-ILBailey Horn (RP) — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILReese Olson (SP) — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.05/08

The Tigers at 35-48 are dealing with a roster that is thin in every direction. Verlander is on the 60-day after a hamstring setback derailed his comeback from hip trouble. Jackson Jobe is still recovering from Tommy John. Javier Baez is done for the year. Gleyber Torres got a cortisone shot for his oblique and is working through a rehab program with no clear return date. The Friday shutout was a real performance — the kind Detroit needs more of — but the lineup that's produced those 3 wins has had to scrap hard for every run. Flaherty keeping it close is the only path to win 1,000 today. First pitch is at 1:40 PM ET.

Sources

MLBHouston AstrosDetroit TigersPolymarketKalshiHunter BrownJack Flaherty