Barstool Bush
Predictions

Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 106d ago·2 min read
Houston AstrosHOU(15-23)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(20-18)
10—0
FINAL
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HOU
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CIN
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Two teams that should not be tied to a 9-run total on paper meet at Great American Ball Park, but here we are. Cincinnati is 20-18 and bleeding, Houston is 15-23 and held together with athletic tape, and the matchup screams "whoever blinks last wins."

Houston Astros
Mike Burrows
(2-6)·5.75 ERA
05/08 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo
(0-1)·7.20 ERA
05/08 Lineup

The headline is Lodolo. He's been on the IL since before Opening Day with the same left-index blister that's chased him for years, and he tossed 4.1 innings of 2-run, 6-K rehab work at Triple-A Louisville before getting the call. The Reds say no workload limit. They better hope so — the rotation behind him is a triage unit with Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, and Carson Spiers all on the shelf.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(17)
  • Day-To-DayLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayLucas Spence (OF) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido (LF) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJake Meyers (CF) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell (CF) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz (C) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena (SS) — no05/08
  • 15-Day-ILHunter Brown (SP) — no05/08
  • 15-Day-ILTatsuya Imai (SP) — no05/08
  • 15-Day-ILNate Pearson (RP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJosh Hader (RP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — no05/08
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(10)
  • Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayRhett Lowder (SP) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — no05/08
  • 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — no05/08
  • 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo (SP) — no05/08
  • 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — no05/08
  • OutCarson Spiers (SP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — no05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — no05/08

Burrows, meanwhile, is the definition of "the ERA is loud, the underlying numbers are quieter." He's 1-4 with a 5.97 and has given up 8-plus hits in 4 of his 7 starts, but he did just turn in a quality start at Fenway in a 3-1 loss. Astros fans keep getting told he's been unlucky. At some point unlucky and bad start to look the same in the box score.

Houston's injury list is genuinely absurd — Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Yainer Diaz, Jake Meyers all out. That's a playoff-caliber lineup and bullpen sitting in the trainer's room. Joe Espada is basically managing a Triple-A roadshow and somehow they're not buried yet.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(15-23)
WWLWL
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(20-18)
LLLLL

The market has the Reds as a -131 home favorite with the run line at -1.5 (+155). DK money is leaning Reds on the spread and the moneyline ticket count, but the EV says no side here is a gift. With Lodolo's command being a giant question mark in his first big-league start of the year and Burrows allowing traffic constantly, the over at 9 might be where the actual sweat lives.

Bottom line: the Reds need this one more than the line suggests. Five straight losses, a division record that's already an anchor, and a fan base that's seen this rotation evaporate before. If Lodolo looks like Lodolo, the skid ends tonight. If the blister talks back early, it's going to be a long night in Cincinnati.

Sources

MLBHouston AstrosCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiMike BurrowsNick Lodolo