Jason Alexander gets the ball for Houston, which is less a vote of confidence and more a function of how shredded the rotation is. He's the 13th different pitcher to start a game for the Astros this year. He did go 6 innings on 80 pitches against the Twins last time out, so credit where it's due — but a 7.30 ERA is a 7.30 ERA. Jack Leiter (1-4, 4.61) counters, and the last time he saw this Astros lineup he was lights out: 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run.
The injury column is where this thing gets ugly for both sides. Houston is functionally fielding a Triple-A roster: Altuve, Correa, Yainer Diaz, Hader, Hunter Brown, McCullers, Blanco — that's most of a contending team's spine sitting in the trainer's room. Texas isn't much better off, with Seager out with a back issue not getting re-evaluated for another week, Langford still working back from the forearm, and Josh Jung scratched again with the shoulder.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido (LF) — Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) will pause his rehab assignment until Wednesday after fouling a ball off his foot during Sunday's game with Double-A Corpus Christie, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/25
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz (C) — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Diaz (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment during the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/25
- 10-Day-ILJose Altuve (2B) — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Altuve (oblique) is expected to resume swinging a bat "in the next day or two," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/24
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell (CF) — Trammell (groin) began a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Tuesday, going 1-for-4 with a double.05/20
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/10
- 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.05/09
- 60-Day-ILHunter Brown (SP) — Brown (shoulder) will make his next rehab start this weekend at Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/25
- 60-Day-ILJosh Hader (RP) — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Hader (biceps) is in line to return from the 60-day injured list in the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/24
- 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Jung (3B) — Jung (shoulder) remains out of the lineup for Monday's contest against the Astros.05/25
- Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott (SS) — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.04/07
- 10-Day-ILJosh Smith (2B) — Smith (illness) is expected to return to Globe Life Field this week, but it's unclear when he'll be ready to ramp up his baseball activities, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.05/25
- 10-Day-ILWyatt Langford (LF) — Langford (forearm) will take batting practice Monday and could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.05/25
- 10-Day-ILCorey Seager (SS) — Seager (back) isn't slated to be re-evaluated for "probably another week," Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/24
- 10-Day-ILCody Freeman (3B) — Freeman (back) moved his rehab from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A Frisco on Friday, MLB.com reports.05/23
- 15-Day-ILCole Winn (RP) — Winn (0-1) took the loss against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, allowing three runs on two hits while striking out one over one-third of an inning.05/24
- 15-Day-ILRobert Garcia (RP) — Garcia (shoulder) began throwing from 80 feet out Friday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports.05/08
- OutDeclan Cronin (RP) — Cronin (elbow) signed a two-year, minor-league contract with the Rangers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.05/08
- OutNabil Crismatt (SP) — Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCarter Baumler (RP) — Baumler (intercostal) has been shut down from his rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.05/23
- 60-Day-ILCody Bradford (SP) — Bradford (elbow) began throwing from 60 feet during the Rangers' most recent homestand, MLB.com reports05/10
- 60-Day-ILJordan Montgomery (SP) — Montgomery (elbow) will throw his fifth bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.05/08
The market has Texas as a moderate home favorite at -132, with the total parked at 8. Worth flagging: the spread is mismatched between books — DK has it at 1.5, Pinnacle at 1 — and EV is negative across the board, so there's no free lunch here. Public money is leaning Rangers ML and Astros run-line, which tracks with the recent vibes more than the season record.
The narrative pick is Houston riding the heater into a 5th straight, but the actual pitching matchup says Leiter over Alexander every day of the week. If the Astros bullpen, minus Hader, can survive whatever Alexander leaves behind, this is a coin flip. If Alexander gets touched up early, it's a Rangers laugher and Texas finally stops the bleeding.