Barstool Bush
Predictions

Houston Astros at Washington Nationals

By Bush StaffUpdated 45d ago·2 min read
Houston AstrosHOU(45-48)
Washington NationalsWSH(47-45)
6—3
FINAL
123456789RHE
HOU
010301010661
WSH
1010000013110

Andrew Alvarez got the ball for Washington looking to build off a rough last outing, while Houston turned to Tatsuya Imai, who's been fighting his command all year. First pitch was 6:45 PM ET, with both staffs already worn down from a series that turned into a track meet.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Astros(45-48)
LWWLL
6
Nationals(47-45)
WLLWW
3
Best BetNationals -122
Postgame

The Nationals moneyline pick cashed as Washington won 6-3, with Imai's shaky command (the bull case) never getting fixed.

Pregame

Washington closes as the home moneyline pick at -115, and it's the right side with Houston's rotation gutted by injuries and Imai walking through a 6-plus ERA. The Nationals have shown they can slug their way past shaky pitching on both sides of this series, and that's the swing skill in a game like this.

Imai came in with a 6.06 ERA and was fresh off a start against Minnesota where he lasted just 1.1 innings, walked 5 and got tagged for 5 earned runs. Alvarez wasn't sharp in his last time out either, giving up 2 earned over 4.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore, but Washington's lineup has been doing enough scoring to cover for shaky length from the rotation.

Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai
(5-4)·6.06 ERA
Jul 1 vs Twins
L
1.1IP
5ER
2K
5BB
57P
07/07 Lineup
Washington Nationals
Andrew Alvarez
(2-3)·4.22 ERA
Jun 26 @ Orioles
L
4.1IP
2ER
5K
3BB
88P
07/07 Lineup

Houston's rotation is a mess right now, with Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter all still working back from injury, which is exactly why a struggling arm like Imai is even in the mix. Washington's own bullpen has taken hits too, but the Nationals have leaned on their bats to bail them out, and that combination of thin pitching on both sides is why the number for this one crept up before first pitch.

Neither team is playing clean baseball at the moment, and this series has been a perfect example. The night before, these two combined for 23 runs in a game Washington won 12-11, and Imai's control problems only raise the odds of another track meet.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(45-48)
Jul 6L@ Nationals11-12
Jul 5Wvs Rays2-0
Jul 4Wvs Rays10-8
Jul 4Lvs Rays1-3
Jul 2Lvs Twins3-8
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
(47-45)
Jul 6Wvs Astros12-11
Jul 5Lvs Pirates5-11
Jul 4Lvs Pirates1-7
Jul 3Wvs Pirates9-5
Jul 1W@ Red Sox10-2

Washington's won 2 of its last 3 heading in, riding a stretch where the lineup has bailed out an inconsistent pitching staff more than once. Houston, meanwhile, has been streaky all year — split its last 5 with wins mixed in with ugly losses, and Tuesday's game continued that up-and-down pattern before the Nationals pulled away late.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(8)
  • 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena (SS) — Pena (calf) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.07/06
  • 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers (shoulder) struck out three and allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk across four innings Wednesday in a rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land.07/02
  • 15-Day-ILKai-Wei Teng (RP) — The Astros rescinded Teng's option and placed him on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right knee sprain, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.07/01
  • 60-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — Sousa (elbow) struck out one over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Sugar Land.07/07
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — Wesneski (elbow) struck out three and allowed one earned run on two hits and one walk across four innings Sunday in a rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi. He also hit a batter and threw two wild pitches.07/07
  • 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — Blanco (elbow) struck out four and allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and one walk across 4.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi.07/02
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/02
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
(9)
  • 15-Day-ILJake Irvin (SP) — Irvin (shoulder) is slated to face live hitters in batting practice Wednesday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.07/06
  • 15-Day-ILRichard Lovelady (RP) — The Nationals placed Lovelady on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left triceps strain.06/29
  • SuspensionCade Cavalli (SP) — Major League Baseball announced that Cavalli's seven-game suspension has been reduced to five games following an appeal, Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic reports. The right-hander will begin serving the ban in Monday's series opener versus the Astros.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) is slated to make his third rehab start Wednesday at Triple-A Rochester, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.07/06
  • 60-Day-ILMitchell Parker (RP) — The Nationals transferred Parker (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.07/02
  • 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) was diagnosed Monday with a left flexor strain, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — Kranick (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Single-A Fredericksburg on Sunday, striking out two over 1.2 perfect innings.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08

Houston is also without Jeremy Pena and Carlos Correa up the middle, which has forced manager Joe Espada to patch together a lineup that's lost some punch even with Yordan Alvarez still raking. Washington is managing its own absences in the rotation with Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams both out, plus Cade Cavalli serving a suspension stemming from the Red Sox brawl, so both benches are stretched thinner than their records suggest.

The Nationals took the finale behind another multi-run outburst, closing out a series where pitching depth was the story every single night. With both rotations banged up and neither bullpen fully healthy, expect more of the same the next time these two see each other.

Sources

MLBHouston AstrosWashington NationalsPolymarketKalshiTatsuya ImaiAndrew Alvarez