Barstool Bush
Predictions

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

By Bush StaffUpdated 25d ago·2 min read
Houston AstrosHOU(53-55)
Los Angeles AngelsLAA(42-65)
3—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
HOU
100100001390
LAA
001010000270

Peter Lambert (8-5, 3.03 ERA) takes the mound for Houston at 6:38 PM PT off arguably the best season of his career, a onetime Rockies castoff who's turned himself into a steady piece of a thin Astros staff. He draws Reid Detmers, who's carrying a worse ERA on the scoreboard but has quietly been one of the unluckiest starters in baseball behind him.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Astros(53-55)
WLWWW
3
Angels(42-65)
LWLLL
2
Best BetAstros -112
Pregame

Houston's the better team by a wide margin, but the moneyline is priced nearly as a coin flip, which makes the Astros the value side here. Alvarez is mashing, Lambert's having a career year on the mound, and Houston's actually pushing for a playoff spot while the team across the field has nothing to play for. That gap in stakes and talent should be worth more than pick'em pricing suggests.

Houston took Monday's opener 6-4 and has won 4 of its last 5, leaning on Yordan Alvarez's monster year at the plate even with Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski both out of the rotation. The Angels have lost 4 of 5 and are playing out a season that's already over in every way that matters, with a front office that fired its GM in June and is about to blow up the roster before next Monday's deadline.

Houston Astros
Peter Lambert
(8-6)·3.09 ERA
Jul 22 vs Marlins
ND
6.0IP
2ER
3K
2BB
89P
07/28 Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
Reid Detmers
(3-8)·4.00 ERA
Jul 22 vs Cardinals
L
5.1IP
1ER
6K
2BB
85P
07/28 Lineup

None of that context is lost on the betting market, where Houston sits as a modest road favorite despite the rebuild gap between these two clubs — a number that says more about lineup depth and bullpen uncertainty than it does about which team is actually better.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILBrice Matthews (CF) — The Astros announced that Matthews was removed from Sunday's game against the Rangers after the first inning due to a left knee injury, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.07/17
  • 15-Day-ILSpencer Arrighetti (SP) — Arrighetti (foot) received an injection Monday and could be cleared to start a throwing program within the next few days, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.07/27
  • 15-Day-ILMike Burrows (SP) — General manager Dana Brown said Wednesday that Burrows (elbow) is expected to begin throwing off a mound within the next 7-to-10 days, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.07/15
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — Wesneski (elbow) struck out seven and allowed one unearned run on two hits and two walks across 4.1 innings in a rehab start Friday with Triple-A Sugar Land.07/26
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/02
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILAdam Frazier (2B) — Frazier (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Salt Lake on Sunday, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.07/20
  • 10-Day-ILSebastian Rivero (C) — Rivero (hand) has been catching at the Angels' spring complex in Arizona, MLB.com reports.07/12
  • 60-Day-ILYoan Moncada (3B) — Moncada (knee) has been rehabbing at his home and hasn't started baseball activities, MLB.com reports.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILYusei Kikuchi (SP) — Kikuchi (shoulder) is expected to throw another live session this weekend, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.07/22
  • 60-Day-ILTravis d'Arnaud (C) — D'Arnaud (foot) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Salt Lake on Friday.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILBen Joyce (RP) — Joyce (shoulder) averaged 100.2 mph with his fastball in a one-inning rehab appearance in the Arizona Complex League on Thursday, Taylor Blake Ward of TheSportingTribune.com reports.07/17
  • 60-Day-ILJack Kochanowicz (SP) — Kochanowicz's Tommy John surgery on his right elbow was deemed "successful," per MLB.com.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILRobert Stephenson (RP) — The Angels announced that Stephenson underwent ligament and flexor repair surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and is likely to miss the remainder of the season, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILAnthony Rendon (3B) — The Angels placed Rendon (hip) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

Carlos Correa's ankle surgery already gutted the middle of Houston's infield for the year, and the rotation is missing multiple arms, but the lineup around Alvarez has enough juice to cover for it against a last-place club that's lost Anthony Rendon, Yusei Kikuchi and Travis d'Arnaud for the season. The Angels' injury report reads like an inventory of a team that stopped fighting the standings months ago.

Detmers himself is reportedly on the Angels' trade block along with Zach Neto and Jo Adell, so there's a real chance this is one of his last starts in an Angels uniform regardless of what happens Tuesday. His strikeout rate and quality-of-contact numbers this year have actually been strong — the results just haven't followed, largely thanks to the glovework behind him.

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(53-55)
Jul 28W@ Angels6-4
Jul 26L@ White Sox3-12
Jul 25W@ White Sox4-1
Jul 24W@ White Sox9-5
Jul 23Wvs Marlins5-2
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels
(42-65)
Jul 28Lvs Astros4-6
Jul 26W@ Giants4-3
Jul 25L@ Giants2-9
Jul 25L@ Giants6-7
Jul 22Lvs Cardinals0-1

Whatever the final score, the story that matters more for Los Angeles is what happens after the deadline closes. For Houston, it's whether four straight wins over a bad team is the start of a real second-half push or just an easy stretch before the schedule gets harder.

Sources

MLBHouston AstrosLos Angeles AngelsPolymarketKalshiPeter LambertReid Detmers