Nothing about Nix's job changed this offseason except the instruction to stop bailing out of it. Sean Payton and new play-caller Davis Webb spent camp pushing him further down the field than Denver's offense has ever asked him to go, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said the deep ball has looked different than it did a year ago. That's the whole story of his summer: a quarterback who already had the safe stuff mastered being told to take the froint of the accuracy he's built his career on and stretch it.
What makes Nix worth rostering has never really been the arm. It's that he almost never gives possessions away and he adds a run game on top of a clean pocket game, which is a rare combination at the position. He wins with anticipation on quick, short-area throws, and when the pocket breaks he's a real weapon with his legs rather than a scrambler killing time before he throws it away. Waddle now gives him a receiver who can win off schemed movement instead of pure vertical speed, which fits exactly how Nix has operated: get the ball out fast, let the catch-and-run do the rest.
The honest problem is that the deep ball talk has been the story every camp and the tape hasn't caught up yet. Nix has been one of the least willing downfield passers in the league through two seasons, sitting near the bottom of the league on throws 20-plus yards out, and an offense built around checkdowns has a ceiling no matter how good the process is underneath it. If Webb's scheme doesn't actually change the shot volume in games that count, this is the same quarterback who leans on volume and legs to get to a solid floor rather than one who wins on explosive plays.
Set him next to Justin Herbert and the shape of the bet is obvious. Herbert has the arm to put a ball anywhere on the field and had to do it behind one of the league's more shaky supporting casts for years, but he's never been the same threat with his legs, so his fantasy answer is almost entirely about his arm holding up and his weapons finally arriving. Nix doesn't have that arm, but he doesn't need it as much either. His week-to-week outcome is dragged up by rushing yards and touchdowns even when the passing game stalls, and that gives him a sturdier weekly floor than a pure pocket passer like Herbert can offer. If the deep ball genuinely arrives this year, Nix's proven floor plus new ceiling is the better bet in the room. If it doesn't, he's still the same safe, useful quarterback he's been for two years running.
