Toledo has its own problem at receiver. TE T. Kelleher and WRs K. Gilbert Jr. and T. Jones have all been listed out with undisclosed injuries since October 10. That's the date of the 23-8 home loss to Buffalo, the 1 game this year the Rockets' offense went missing. They bounced back with a 34-14 win at Eastern Michigan, which had come in 3-0 in conference, so the passing game clearly still works without them.
Buffalo is the opponent both teams have played, and it's the most useful comparison on the page. Western Michigan went to Buffalo and won by 3. Toledo hosted Buffalo and scored 8. One result doesn't decide a game a week later, but it does say Toledo can be slowed down, and this Broncos defense has allowed 21 or fewer in 4 of its last 5.
Kelleher, Gilbert and Jones are the names to watch this week. None of them has a timetable, so Toledo's pass catchers on October 24 could look a lot like the group that just scored 34 in Ypsilanti. If any of them comes back, the Rockets' passing game gets deeper. Western Michigan's injury list in our data is empty, and that's a real advantage at this point of the season.
The weather shouldn't be a factor: 62 degrees, mostly sunny, 5 mph wind and a 1% chance of rain. The game comes down to whether Western Michigan can run the ball and keep Toledo's offense on the sideline, or whether the Rockets score fast enough to force Lowry to throw. The winner comes out of this as a real contender in the MAC race.