Arkansas State isn't hiding from this one either. Butch Jones is in year 6, the Red Wolves have been to three straight bowls, and they just knocked off Missouri State 34-28 in the Xbox Bowl to cap a 7-6 season. The roster reflects it: Arkansas State placed a league-high 7 players on the preseason All-Sun Belt first team, led by running back Kenyon Clay and receiver Chauncy Cobb, who made the cut at 3 different spots.
Still, the voters picked Arkansas State 3rd in the West, behind Troy and Louisiana, and there's a reason beyond respect for the Trojans. Three-year starting quarterback Jaylen Raynor is gone, and Jones is sorting through 4 transfer candidates to replace him, with Texas transfer Trey Owens getting mentioned as the guy with the highest ceiling. That's the swing variable for this whole season, and by late November it should be settled one way or the other — for better or worse.
Zoom out and this is a rematch of last year's Sun Belt West race, with both programs believing they're better than their bowl results suggested. Troy's ceiling is division favorite if the QB room and new OC click. Arkansas State's ceiling is a talent-driven leap if the new quarterback is even average. A closing-week game between these 2 could easily double as a de facto West decider again.