Sacramento State is in a much worse place. The Hornets are 1-5 and 0-4 in conference play in their first FBS season, and they haven't scored more than 10 points in any of their last 5 games. Ohio was the latest: 48-7 at Hornet Stadium on homecoming week. The week before that they lost 38-10 at Bowling Green with just 145 passing yards, which happens to be the same Bowling Green team Ball State just beat on the road.
Both teams have that Bowling Green result in common, and it's about as close to a head-to-head as this matchup gets. Ball State went to Bowling Green and won by 1 in overtime. Sac State went there and lost by 28. That doesn't make the Cardinals world-beaters. Their defense has given up 26 or more in each of their last 5 games, including 51 to Liberty and 45 to Northwestern. But a Hornets offense putting up single digits most weeks hasn't shown it can take advantage of a defense that leaky.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 24 at Scheumann Stadium, and the early forecast is 68 and cloudy with no rain and an 8 mph wind. Weather won't be an excuse for anyone. For Ball State, this is a chance to stack wins for the first time in a while and play like it belongs back in the MAC race. For Sac State, the bar is lower: score some points, stay in the game into the second half, and give the Hornets something to build on in a brutal first year up a level.
No line is up yet, so there's nothing to bet. What the game hinges on is clear enough already: Luster's legs against a Sac State defense that has given up 31 or more in each of its last 5, and whether the Hornets' offense can show up at all on the road.