Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Oct 31, 202612:00 PM CTUniversity Park, PA
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Penn State has gone 0-4 in the Big Ten and three of those losses were one-score games. Purdue comes to Beaver Stadium on Saturday, October 31, with a defense that just took the ball away 5 times, and that's a bad fit for an offense that keeps giving it up.

SAT 10/31, 12:00 PM CT · Week 9
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Two 3-4 teams meet at Beaver Stadium, with Penn State winless in 4 Big Ten games and Purdue at 2-2 in the league. The game probably turns on ball security: Rocco Becht threw 2 interceptions in the 21-18 loss at Michigan, and Purdue's defense forced 5 turnovers against Washington even while giving up 488 yards. No line has been posted yet.

Purdue Boilermakers
  • Defense forced 5 turnovers against Washington
  • Ryan Browne adds a running threat at QB
  • 2-2 in Big Ten, including a road win at Illinois
  • Gave up 488 yards and 15 explosive plays to Washington
  • Allowed 52 to UCLA and 49 to Notre Dame
  • TE K. Fox out indefinitely with a knee injury
Penn State Nittany Lions
  • Chase Sowell: 11 catches, 151 yards at Michigan
  • Three Big Ten losses by 8 points or fewer
  • Home game at Beaver Stadium
  • Becht threw 2 INTs, gave up 3 second-half turnovers at Michigan
  • Offense held to 23 points or fewer in 4 straight
  • DL M. Granville out for the season; WR K. Howard out

This one is about the quarterbacks. Rocco Becht did plenty of throwing in Ann Arbor, going 28-for-44 for 267 yards and a touchdown, but he also threw 2 interceptions. Michigan took the ball away 3 times after halftime and turned an 18-21 game its way. Purdue has Ryan Browne under center, and he's a runner as much as a passer. His 8-yard touchdown run against Washington got the Boilermakers within 31-26 in the 4th quarter before the 2-point try failed.

Chase Sowell is the reason Penn State's passing game still works. He caught 11 balls for 151 yards and a score against Michigan, and with K. Howard out indefinitely, the targets keep going his way. Penn State's defensive front is without M. Granville, who is done for the season. Purdue is missing tight end K. Fox, out with a knee injury since August, so the Boilermakers have spent all year building their passing game without him.

The board has nothing posted yet, which is fine, because the football gives you plenty. Purdue's loss to Washington was a strange one. The Boilermakers forced 5 turnovers, their most in a game since 2015, and still lost by 12. Washington piled up 488 yards and 15 plays of 15 yards or more, so Purdue's defense won the turnover battle and got beaten everywhere else.

10/17LvsWashington26-38
10/11WvsMinnesota41-13
10/03W@Illinois24-17
09/26Lvs4Notre Dame10-49
09/20L@9UCLA38-52
10/17L@Michigan18-21
10/10Lvs16USC23-31
10/03L@24Northwestern13-34
09/26LvsWisconsin20-24
09/19WvsBuffalo55-13

Penn State's slide has been a slow bleed, not a collapse. The Nittany Lions crushed Buffalo 55-13, then lost to Wisconsin by 4 at home, to USC by 8 at home, and to Michigan by 3 on the road. The 34-13 loss at Northwestern is the only one that got away from them. The common thread is scoring. They've put up 20, 13, 23 and 18 during the skid, and the Michigan game needed 15 points in the 4th quarter just to make it close. An offense that can't string drives together against a defense that lives on turnovers is how a home favorite ends up sweating in the 4th quarter.

Purdue has already shown more range than Penn State. The Boilermakers are 2-2 in conference play, with a road win at Illinois and a 41-13 rout of Minnesota, and they also gave up 52 to UCLA and 49 to Notre Dame. They're dangerous when the defense is creating chaos and they get run off the field when it isn't. Penn State needs a clean game from Becht at home. Purdue needs the 5-takeaway version of its defense without giving up the explosive plays that came with it last time.

Purdue vs. Penn State: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 31) — Purdue Brings Its Takeaway Defense To A Reeling Beaver Stadium · Barstool Bush