Who is favored in North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico Lobos?

New Mexico Lobos are favored on the moneyline.

North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico Lobos

·Oct 24, 2026·9:00 PM CT·CW·Albuquerque, NM

By JR·2 min read

North Dakota State(6-1)

New Mexico(5-1)

9:00 PM

TLDR: North Dakota State is bowl-eligible in its first year as an FBS program, and New Mexico came into the year as the Mountain West favorite. Saturday, October 24 in Albuquerque shows how real each of those is.

SAT 10/24, SAT OCT 24, 9:00 PM CT · Week 8

North Dakota State

(6-1)

WLWWW

New Mexico

(5-1)

WWWLW

Kickoff 62°13 mph

North Dakota State is 6-1 and bowl-eligible in its first FBS season, winning with defense and special teams while injuries have gutted its backfield and receiver group. New Mexico is 4-1, the preseason Mountain West favorite, playing Toa Fa'avae at quarterback with Layne out, and its blowout wins came against weak opponents while it scored 6 points against Oklahoma. The game should come down to whether the short-handed Bison offense can score at all in Albuquerque, and whether the Lobos can score on a defense that looks more like Oklahoma's than UTEP's.

North Dakota State Bison

Shut out Wyoming 28-0, held UNLV to 13
Defense and special teams scored 14 against Nevada
Allowed 17 or fewer in 4 of last 5
Lead RB Toliver out for the season
WRs Schlosser, Schlichting and TE Danner all out for year
Managed just 7 points in loss at UNLV

New Mexico Lobos

Outscored New Mexico State and UTEP 103-25
Defense held Oklahoma to 14 on the road
Fa'avae threw 3 TDs against UTEP
QB Layne out with elbow injury
Receiver room thin: Omeire, Williams out, Mingo questionable
Scored only 6 against the 1 real defense faced

The quarterback picture is clearer on one sideline. New Mexico has been without J. Layne, out with an elbow injury since August, and Toa Fa'avae has been running the offense. He threw for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 61-7 rout of UTEP. North Dakota State's issue isn't the quarterback. It's who is left for the quarterback to throw and hand the ball to, and that is the story of this game for the Bison.

The Bison have lost RB B. Toliver, WRs D. Schlosser and K. Schlichting, and TE C. Danner, all expected to miss the rest of the season. The results since then show it. They scored 7 points in the loss at UNLV, then fell behind Nevada 11-0 before the defense and special teams bailed them out. New Mexico's skill group is banged up too: T. Omeire and A. Williams are out at receiver, TE J. Olsen is out with an ACL injury, and M. Mingo is questionable with a foot problem. The Lobos are a modest home favorite, which is about what you'd expect from 2 teams with these records and these injury lists.

Look closely at that 31-17 win over Nevada, because the score flatters the offense. Jackson Williams returned a missed field goal 100 yards on the final play of the first half. In the third quarter, after Nevada had a chance to tie, defensive end Matthew Stenbroten scooped a fumble and went 74 yards. That's 14 points without the offense on the field. Repeating that at altitude against a better team is a lot to ask, but the Bison defense has earned some trust. It shut out Wyoming 28-0 and held UNLV to 13 in a game the offense couldn't do anything in.

New Mexico's résumé points both ways. The Lobos put up 70 on Mercyhurst and 61 on UTEP, and they beat New Mexico State 42-18 in the Rio Grande Rivalry. Their one game against a ranked team was a 6-14 loss at Oklahoma, where the defense kept them in it and the offense never showed up. North Dakota State's defense looks a lot more like Oklahoma's than UTEP's. Jason Eck's 2nd team also has a trip to Honolulu to play Hawai'i before this one, so the Lobos will be coming home after one of the longest trips in college football.

The forecast is clear and 64 degrees with winds around 19 mph. That's worth watching for the kicking game and for 2 passing attacks without many healthy targets. This is also the first time these programs have met. North Dakota State is trying to show its first FBS season holds up against the conference's preseason pick, and New Mexico is trying to show it beats teams that don't fold early.

North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico Lobos

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