Both teams have played Western Kentucky, and that comparison flatters New Mexico State. The Aggies beat the Hilltoppers 34-13 at home. The same Western Kentucky team went into Huntsville and won by 13 on 3 Karl Campbell field goals and a single touchdown. Common opponents can mislead you, but a 34-point night against a defense that held Sam Houston to a field goal is worth noticing. No board has posted for this one yet, so the matchup is all there is to go on.
Mercyhurst51-14
Nicholls59-0
Don't crown the Aggies off one good night, though. Their 2 road games in the last 5 both went badly, a 29-19 loss at Hawai'i and a 22-3 loss at FIU that looked a lot like Sam Houston's last 2 weeks. They also got beaten 42-18 at home by New Mexico. This is a 2-4 team whose best outings have come in Las Cruces, and this one isn't there.
Sam Houston at least has a reason to believe at home. Before last week, Bowers Stadium gave the Bearkats a 59-0 win over Nicholls and a 6-point loss to Tulsa. The forecast is clear, 75 degrees with almost no wind, so the weather won't save or sink either offense. At 0-2 in conference play and on a 3-game losing streak, the Bearkats need this badly. The Aggies are 1-1 in CUSA and can stay at .500 in the league with a win before Jacksonville State comes to town the following Wednesday.
It's on ESPN2. Expect a game decided by whichever offense stops stalling first. New Mexico State has the extra week and the better recent result against a shared opponent. Sam Houston has home field and a defense that kept Western Kentucky to 1 touchdown. Neither team has been reliable for 2 weeks running this season.