The roster churn this offseason has gone in different directions for each side. Middle Tennessee lost its offensive line coach, Kendall Simmons, midseason back on November 4, and has been working the transfer portal hard, adding pieces like running back Antonio Martin Jr. from Kansas State. NM State's staff is betting on a new-look offense to fix a defense-driven problem -- the Aggies were 4-1 last year when they held opponents under 400 yards and 0-7 when they didn't, so this rematch will likely hinge on which team's skill guys, like NM State's TK King, who torched MTSU for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns in the finale, get consistent room to work.
Neither team enters this one with much margin for error. NM State is 1-14 under Sanchez when it allows 400-plus yards, a number that has to come down if the Aggies want a different result than last November. Middle Tennessee's issue is more about consistency across a full season than any one unit -- Gagliano was sharp in the finale, but a team hasn't finished the year over .500 under Mason yet, and the pressure to turn that around only grows the longer this stays a rebuild.
This is a Conference USA finale-type matchup between two programs still trying to prove they've turned a corner, not a marquee showcase, but the storyline carries over cleanly from last year's overtime finish. Whoever handles the physical, late-season style of game better -- and avoids the kind of fourth-quarter mistakes that sank NM State in the first meeting -- should walk away with it again.