FIU's identity this season has been defense. The Panthers held Long Island and New Mexico State to 3 points apiece in back-to-back home wins, and they beat Buffalo 33-20 at home before that. The offense has been the problem. They managed 10 points in a loss at Florida Atlantic, and in the 27-24 loss at Jacksonville State they were tied 24-24 after 3 quarters and didn't score in the 4th. It gets thinner tonight: running back A. Carrie is out with an undisclosed injury and isn't expected to suit up, which puts more on an offense that already stalled late last time out.
Long Island University20-3
Home field matters a lot for both teams. FIU is 3-0 at home in its last 5 and 0-2 on the road. Middle Tennessee's 2 wins in that stretch both came at home, and its 3 road games were losses at Marshall, Jacksonville State and Kansas. One of those patterns has to give in Miami. Jacksonville State is the closest thing to a common-opponent test: MTSU lost there by 10, and FIU lost there by 3 after holding a lead most of the night.
The weather is no longer a factor. Earlier in the week the forecast for Pitbull Stadium called for drizzle, a 55% chance of rain and 18 mph wind, which would have made things easier on FIU's defense. The game-day reading is 74 degrees and clear, with a 3% chance of rain and 6 mph wind, so Gagliano gets a dry, calm night to throw in after putting up 291 yards. Middle Tennessee has nobody on its injury report. Both teams are coming off Tuesday games, so neither has a rest advantage.