Houston Cougars at Utah Utes

Oct 24, 20269:15 PM CTESPNSalt Lake City, UT
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: No. 20 Houston just survived a Big 12 shootout. Next it has to go to Rice-Eccles and solve a No. 11 Utah defense that has spent the season keeping opponents out of the end zone.

SAT 10/24, 9:15 PM CT · Week 8ESPN
Kickoff 55°

No. 20 Houston visits No. 11 Utah in a Big 12 game between two teams with 1 combined loss. Conner Weigman is coming off a 5-touchdown game against Oklahoma State, but Houston's defense gave up 29 second-half points in that win and now faces a Utah team that has allowed 24 or fewer in every game on the board. Utah's result at Colorado and CB J. Hart's availability are the open questions before kickoff.

Houston Cougars
  • Weigman: 343 yards, 5 TDs against Oklahoma State
  • Already won at Kansas State, 35-16
  • Only loss was by 2 at Texas Tech
  • Allowed 29 second-half points to Oklahoma State
  • RB Hebert out for the season
  • DL D. Thomas and WR Tounkara also out
Utah Utes
  • Allowed 24 or fewer in all 5 tracked games
  • Scored 30-plus in every game on the board
  • Shut out Utah State, held Arkansas to 10
  • CB J. Hart out with an undisclosed injury
  • Colorado result still pending in our data
  • Faces the best QB form it has seen

Start with the quarterback, because Houston's whole case runs through him. Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and 5 touchdowns in the 35-32 win over Oklahoma State, and the Cougars needed every one of them. Houston led 14-3 at halftime and then spent the second half trading touchdowns with Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 365 yards. The Cowboys got within 3 with 4:54 left, and Houston held on from there. Weigman can carry an offense. Saturday, October 24 asks whether he can do it against a defense that is nothing like Oklahoma State's.

Houston is also playing shorthanded. RB J. Hebert is done for the season with a lower leg injury, so the ground game has been running without him since early October. WR M. Tounkara has been out with a foot injury since August, and DL D. Thomas missed the Oklahoma State game with an undisclosed injury. Utah's one listed absence is CB J. Hart, who was not expected to play at Colorado. Whether he is back for this one matters, since Weigman is coming off a 5-touchdown day. The early board has Utah as a clear home favorite, which is about what the two résumés say.

Those résumés tell you where the matchup sits. Utah was 5-0 heading into its trip to Colorado and gave up 14, 10, 0, 17 and 24 points in those 5 games, including a 33-0 shutout of Utah State and a 43-10 win over Arkansas. The Utes also scored 30 or more every time out. They took their only bye on October 3, so this is not a team grinding through its 8th straight week. That Colorado result is the one piece of Utah's October our board does not show yet, so treat the unbeaten record as a snapshot from before Boulder.

10/17WvsOklahoma State35-32
10/10W@Kansas State35-16
10/03WvsUCF27-17
09/26W@Georgia Southern42-28
09/19L@8Texas Tech26-28
10/18W@Colorado27-24
10/11WvsKansas41-24
09/26W@Iowa State31-17
09/19WvsUtah State33-0
09/13WvsArkansas43-10

Houston's road record is the other thing to weigh. The Cougars' only loss was a 28-26 finish at Texas Tech, and they have won at Georgia Southern and beaten Kansas State 35-16 in Manhattan, so a hostile stadium has not rattled them. The worry is the defense. Oklahoma State scored touchdowns on 4 of its 5 second-half drives, and Georgia Southern put up 28 earlier in the run. A defense that leaky against offenses that move the ball is a problem when you visit a team that has scored 30-plus in every game on the board.

It comes down to Weigman and the Houston passing game against a Utah secondary that may or may not have Hart back. Early forecasts call for cloudy skies in the low 50s with barely any wind, so the weather should not take the passing game away from either side. If Houston can put together a full 4 quarters on defense, instead of a good half followed by a shootout, this is a real Big 12 test. If not, Utah's offense has spent all season punishing teams that give up yards.

Houston vs. Utah: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 24) — Weigman and Houston Take Their Big 12 Case to Salt Lake · Barstool Bush