Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers

Oct 23, 20266:00 PM CTESPNCharlottesville, VA
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Duke has lost 2 ACC games in a row by a combined 7 points. Virginia has dropped 2 of its last 3. One of them ends Friday night at Scott Stadium with a little breathing room in the ACC.

FRI 10/23, 6:00 PM CT · Week 8ESPN
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Kickoff 51°

Duke (4-2, 1-2 ACC) visits Virginia (4-3, 2-2 ACC) on a short week. Both teams are coming off losses, Duke's 2 straight by a combined 7 points. Virginia has been far better at Scott Stadium than on the road, but it was missing much of its secondary at SMU, and how many of those players return will decide how well Virginia can slow Walker Eget. Duke is playing without its season-long kicker, which matters for a team whose recent games have gone down to the final drive.

Duke Blue Devils
  • Eget offense put 31 on Illinois on the road
  • Lost to Georgia Tech and UNC by 3 and 4
  • Faces a Virginia secondary that was thin at SMU
  • Lost 2 straight, both ACC games
  • Eget picked off on the final drive vs UNC
  • Kicker C. Salas out for the season
Virginia Cavaliers
  • Winless on the road, much better at Scott Stadium
  • Beat Syracuse at home in a one-score game
  • 22 players listed out at SMU
  • 3 second-half points, outgained 404-258 at SMU
  • Lost at home to West Virginia by 11

There's no board on this one yet, so start with the football. Walker Eget's Blue Devils dominated the soft part of the schedule: 35-7 over Stanford, 62-7 over William & Mary, and a 31-27 road win at Illinois. ACC play has been a different story. They lost by 3 at Georgia Tech, then lost the Victory Bell at home to North Carolina, 24-20. Eget hit Nate Sheppard from 7 yards out for a 4th-quarter lead, Jaylen McGill answered with under 2 minutes left, and Kenton Dopson III picked off Eget on the last drive.

Virginia comes in with the opposite profile. The Cavaliers have been fine at Scott Stadium and are winless away from it, and the home results swing hard: 42-3 over Delaware, a 3-point escape against Syracuse, and an 11-point home loss to West Virginia. The bigger issue is bodies. Virginia listed 22 players out at SMU, including receivers Kameron Courtney and Rico Flores Jr., cornerback Omillio Agard and safety Corey Costner, and safety Brandyn Hillman sat after being a game-time call. How many of those names come back on a short week shapes this game more than anything else.

The SMU loss was closer than the final score for a half. Will Bettridge tied it 10-10 with 29 seconds left before the break. Then a roughing-the-passer call on the last play of the half set up a 45-yard SMU field goal. Virginia managed 3 points after halftime and got outgained 404-258. That's the 2nd time this year the Cavaliers' offense has stalled on the road against a good defense, after a 7-38 loss at Florida State.

10/17LvsNorth Carolina20-24
10/10L@Georgia Tech25-28
09/26WvsWilliam & Mary62-7
09/19WvsStanford35-7
09/12W@Illinois31-27
10/17L@23SMU13-23
10/10WvsSyracuse28-25
10/03L@Florida State7-38
09/26WvsDelaware42-3
09/19LvsWest Virginia27-38

Both teams played Saturday and turn around for a Friday kickoff, so neither side gets a rest edge. Duke's trend is the more frustrating one. Both conference losses came down to the final possession, and the Blue Devils had the lead late against UNC. Now they have to play close games without kicker C. Salas, who was ruled out for the season on October 12. For a team whose last 2 games were decided by 3 and 4 points, the kicking unit is not a small detail.

The matchup to watch is Eget against a Virginia secondary that was missing a starting corner and 2 safeties at SMU. If those players are back, Virginia's defense has the talent to make this a field-position game at home. If they aren't, Duke can attack through the air in a way Virginia couldn't stop last weekend. The early forecast calls for clear skies, mid-50s and almost no wind, so weather shouldn't be an excuse for either offense.

Duke vs. Virginia: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 23) — Duke Brings Its Close-Game Problem to Charlottesville Friday Night · Barstool Bush