The common opponent is about as clear as these get. Baylor went to Arizona State and won 55-19. Kansas hosted the same Sun Devils and lost 17-24. That's one game and it shouldn't be oversold. But next to Baylor's 2-1 conference record and Kansas's 0-3, it says one of these teams has been competing in the Big 12 and the other has mostly been taking hits.
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What gives Kansas a real shot is Baylor's offense, which went dark in the second half against TCU and scored 0 points after the break. The run game had less than 10 yards for most of the first half, and the offensive line couldn't hold up against the TCU front. The defense is the reason that game stayed close. It held TCU to 1 rushing yard on 12 first-half carries, got after the quarterback, and Micah Gifford picked off a flea-flicker. That defensive line now faces a Kansas offense down to its 4th-string running back situation.
Kansas has scored, at least. The Jayhawks put up 24 in each of their last 2 losses and led Kansas State by 10 early. The problem is the defense, which gave up 41 to Utah and 35 to K-State. Joe Jackson ran for 159 yards and Avery Johnson for 132 in the Sunflower Showdown. If Baylor's line can open up even part of that, Lagway won't need to win it on fades. If Kansas makes them throw instead, this turns into a field-position grind in a 14 mph wind, between 2 offenses that each have plenty to fix in a week.