James Madison leaves Sun Belt for the American

Monday morning started with a board meeting in Harrisonburg, and within an hour the Dukes had a new conference.

Pete Nakos

@PeteNakos

Conference realignment news: James Madison's Board of Visitors has voted to terminate its membership in the Sun Belt and join the American by July 2028. t.co/0t4fpExraq

On3

@On3

NEW: The James Madison Board of Visitors voted on Monday to terminate its Sun Belt Conference athletic membership and apply to join the American. (h/t @libmmercer) t.co/A4OQIIXpNi

Minutes later JMU confirmed it had accepted an invite from the American, and every realignment reporter in the country posted the same news at once. The timing is the interesting part. According to ESPN, the Sun Belt was meeting this week and planned to vote later in the week on raising its exit fees. JMU saw the price going up and left before the vote. Texas State paid $5 million to get out of the Sun Belt, and JMU's bill is expected to land around the same number.

Money is the whole story here, and JMU isn't hiding that. The school will pay roughly $23 million to get into the American plus the $5 million exit fee, and all of it is coming from private donors and corporate partners, not university money. That is a lot of cash for a Group of 6 lateral move, until you look at the payouts.

Chris Vannini

@ChrisVannini

Some numbers on JMU's move, per sources and tax docs: - JMU expected to get American share in line w/ newer members (~$6-7m) - Sun Belt payout was ~$2m annually - $5 million exit fee (or more), $23 million entrance fee More w/ @Williams_Justin: t.co/gwyuc8b5nx

That is the bet. A Sun Belt check worth around $2 million a year turns into an American share somewhere around $6-7 million, plus bonus money if the Dukes keep winning. Yahoo Sports reported that the full distribution phases in over a 6-year timeline like the league's other recent additions, so the return comes slowly. Even so, tripling your annual payout is worth $28 million up front for a program built to win right now. JMU went from FCS to FBS in 2022, won its first Sun Belt title last season at 12-2, made the College Football Playoff, and is 6-0 this fall under Billy Napier. Not many programs have sent coaches to Indiana and UCLA in 3 years and kept winning anyway.

The other angle is that JMU has wanted this for a while. It wanted the American before the Sun Belt ever came up, and the league wasn't interested back then. New commissioner, new math. Per ESPN, the American isn't adding anyone else right away. This was not a package deal, and the Sun Belt's statement said leadership will "examine and evaluate all opportunities," which is commissioner-speak for: we're going shopping.

By Wednesday the conversation had zoomed out from Harrisonburg to the whole map.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

To paraphrase Neil Young: Conference realignment never sleeps. James Madison becomes 21st non-power school to change leagues in past 3 years. More moves are ahead in the G6 & who’s on deck if/when B1G or SEC pull the trigger? t.co/m6GhN07EDl

Twenty-one non-power schools have switched leagues in 3 years, and JMU is just the latest. The G6 game of musical chairs will keep going because the Sun Belt has a hole to fill and every school in it now knows exactly what leaving costs. The bigger question is the one at the top of the sport, and for now the answer is that nobody's in a hurry.

Chris Low

@Clowfb

As @Brett_McMurphy writes, not much of an appetite for the SEC or Big Ten to expand anytime soon. If the SEC does go down that road, North Carolina and Virginia would be at or near the top of the list.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

To paraphrase Neil Young: Conference realignment never sleeps. James Madison becomes 21st non-power school to change leagues in past 3 years. More moves are ahead in the G6 & who’s on deck if/when B1G or SEC pull the trigger? t.co/m6GhN07EDl

So the power leagues are sitting tight for now. If the SEC moves, the first calls supposedly go to North Carolina and Virginia, and every G6 school is building its résumé for whenever that day comes. Next up: the Sun Belt's exit-fee vote, which will now happen with JMU already gone, and whoever the Sun Belt targets to replace the Dukes. Until 2028, JMU is still a Sun Belt team, and a 6-0 one that has 2 more years to make that league regret it.